09.26.2023
Ukrainian troops broke through the defense line of the Russian invaders in Verbovoy in the Zaporozhye direction. The commander of the operational-strategic group of troops “Tavria”, Brigadier General Alexander Tarnavsky, spoke about this.
The fact that the situation for Russians in this area has radically changed for the worse is confirmed by both the American Institute for the Study of War and z-bloggers. According to some reports, there is a possibility of encirclement of some enemy troops in this area.
About how the counteroffensive continues in the south of Ukraine, see the material from OBOZREVATEL.
The order is not to spare the soldiers
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) analytical center reports that “Russian troops near Rabotino and Verbov in the Zaporozhye region are not retreating to deeper defensive positions built during the occupation of these territories, but are conducting their own counterattacks.” Moreover, their actions were not only senseless, but also led to numerous losses – Ukrainian troops successfully suppress such attacks.
Such bloody counterattacks could be an order from the Russian command, ISW experts say. Putin and the Kremlin present Russian defensive operations as a major victory on the battlefield, and constant counterattacks suggest that these operations are isolated victories against the backdrop of a general lack of success for the Russian Federation elsewhere.
“Putin may have ordered the military command to hold all initial defensive positions to create the illusion that the Ukrainian counter-offensive has not brought any tactical or operational results, despite significant Western support. The deadline has been given until the beginning of October to improve the situation at the front. During this time, the Russians want to stop Ukrainian counter-offensives and return the initiative to their troops, even launching an offensive operation,” ISW analysts say.
There is a desire to stop progress, but there is no strength
“Russia does not have the necessary reserves to hold this area,” says Alexander Kovalenko, a military-political expert with the Information Resistance group. “Ukrainian operations in Bakhmut keep Russian troops in eastern Ukraine, and away from the southern front. If we talk about the Vostok group of forces.” Its reserves ran out in the summer. That is why the occupiers are transferring elite airborne units from the Lugansk region in order to somehow strengthen the defense of the south. At the moment, they have almost exhausted the resources of other bridgeheads.
“The units of the 810th Marine Brigade lost their combat effectiveness, a significant part of the officer corps of the units of the 7th Airborne Assault Division was liquidated, and the combat capability of the 234th and 237th Airborne Assault Regiments of the 76th Airborne Assault Division was undermined. By the way, precisely those that were supposed to take direct part in the encirclement of the self-propelled gun system (Ukrainian Defense Forces. – Ed.) in the Tokmak direction.
Of course, it would be better for the Russians to withdraw their troops deep into the defense, but this is a classic tactic for their actions at the front. They hold the defense in one or another locality to the last, even if the situation is stalemate for them. They spend their resources, and after losing territory, they begin to pointlessly attack with heavy losses in equipment and personnel. This was the case with Rabotino, Kleschievka and Andreevka.
“Now a similar situation is unfolding near Novoprokopovka, which is south of Rabotino. After they lost their main defense stronghold, it became clear that they would not be able to hold this village. Ukrainian defense forces have captured it, but the Russians are still there. Well, they will suffer heavy losses again,” the military-political expert emphasizes.
According to Alexander Kovalenko, such tactics are primarily due to the fact that the Russians want to delay as much time as possible and wait for the weather conditions to worsen. This, in their opinion, will help stop the advance of Ukrainian forces.
“They cannot stop our counter-offensive – they can only slow down, flooding them with human resources,” continues Alexander Kovalenko.
“That’s why the Russian command is very much counting on the rainy season. Will this help them? It depends on where the self-propelled guns will be at that moment. If we are north of Tokmak, then this will. We can be greatly slowed down. If the Ukrainian Defense Forces go south of this city, then the weather will play practically no role for our further advance. It is in October, while the weather is still quite dry, that the further development of events that awaits us in November-December is decided.”
How the Russians wanted to surround the SOU, but it seems they themselves will fall into a trap
According to ISW analysts, who cite Russian sources, the 7th and 76th Airborne Divisions were ordered to conduct an operational encirclement of Ukrainian forces in the Zaporozhye direction. However, they not only failed to complete the assigned task, but also practically lost their combat effectiveness. It should be noted that more than half of the personnel of these divisions are mobilized. Now self-propelled guns can encircle part of the Russian forces in this area.
Now the Russian 56th Airborne Regiment, which is located in Novofedorovka, is under immediate threat of encirclement. The regiment suffers high casualties and has low morale, the Institute for the Study of War reports.
“It is too early to say that the SOU could soon encircle the Russian occupation forces in this area,” continues Alexander Kovalenko. “However, the Russians really have very big problems in this direction and it is difficult for them to hold the defense. We can definitely talk about their coverage forces in the southwestern sector, which could lead to very good results for us.”
Not all occupiers like “meat” assaults
Mobilized soldiers of the 1st battalion of the 1442nd regiment from the Altai Territory, operating in the Bakhmut direction, recorded a video message that they abandoned their positions, abandoning weapons and equipment in the area of the village of Kleshchievka after they received an order to form an assault group “for certain death.” They also say that “the ammunition is terrible, it doesn’t even fly away, and the ones that fly away don’t explode.”
The occupiers add that units in this direction have low morale after hearing reports that Ukrainian forces destroyed most of an unspecified Russian regiment and almost the entire retreating assault group in the area. The Russians also claim that they have no prepared defensive positions and are forced to rely on small arms, while the Ukrainians have artillery.
Relatives of the personnel of the 1442nd regiment previously appealed to Russian President Vladimir Putin after the Russian military command ordered the beating of soldiers for refusing the assault on September 14.
Mobilized Russians do not want to fight
It seems that the news from the front is not very encouraging for Russian men to go to war. Thus, Russians who were mobilized last fall began to be tried en masse for leaving their units without permission (337 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation). Since May 2023, garrison military courts of the Russian Federation have handed down on average about a hundred sentences per week in cases of AWOL, writes Mediazona, citing judicial statistics.
In 513 cases, the texts of decisions on such cases were published on court websites. It follows from them that 58% of the sentences concerned precisely those who were sent to serve by decree of the President of the Russian Federation. Another 39% were contract soldiers at the time of the full-scale attack, the rest were conscripts.
Interestingly, more than half of all sentences are suspended. This allows the convict to be sent back to the front. In some cases, the defendant’s promise to continue fighting is written directly into the sentence. In addition, a suspended sentence allows commanders to control military personnel, since it can be changed to a real one for any violation.
Ukrainian Defense Forces set a record
Over the 3 weeks of September, 680 units of enemy artillery were destroyed at the front, reported Alexander Kovalenko. For an absolute record, you need to destroy 12 more barrels. The second record is Russian losses of MLRS. Today there are 54 units. And the third expected record is motor transport. In September, 707 units have already been destroyed, which is the second figure for the entire period of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
“Putin and the Kremlin present Russian defensive operations as a major victory on the battlefield, and constant counterattacks suggest that these operations are isolated victories against the backdrop of a general lack of success for the Russian Federation elsewhere.”
Looks like tactics used by the Nazis in the closing days of WWII, in which they also whitewashed mediocre achievements to look like something more.
“They spend their resources, and after losing territory, they begin to pointlessly attack with heavy losses in equipment and personnel. This was the case with Rabotino, Kleschievka and Andreevka.”
That’s what happens when you have officers that get their ranks through bribes and not through education and competencies.
“Over the 3 weeks of September, 680 units of enemy artillery were destroyed at the front…”
That’s significant! That hurts really bad. They not only have poor ammunition, but are getting their artillery vaporized all along the front. Killing mafia artillery is equally important as killing orcs.
Sir OFP I ask a question out of ignorance. I read about the low morale, the ineffectiveness of the orcs in both both defensive and counteroffensive moves but yet in my mind I still don’t see much movement of our forces. Again this is a question by someone who knows nothing of military tactics or strategies. I just don’t understand if an army is under such pressure that we don’t see our heroes advancing more quickly. Sorry for the dumb question.
Sir Cap, this is no dumb question. It’s very legitimate to ask about this seemingly odd situation.
But, when you see certain aspects, it’s not so odd anymore.
It’s easy to get the impression that the AFU should be able to walk right through mafia defenses when reading about all the troubles that they are having. However, we must not forget that they are mostly on the defensive, hiding in countless trenches, foxholes, and bunkers. They are still protected by minefields, artillery, tanks, and aircraft. There are vicious officers who will have anyone killed who refuses to fight. There are still so-called blocking troops who will gladly gun anyone down who runs. This is not an army as we have it. It is an army of bloodthirsty ghouls.
Remember that Ukraine’s losses are less than the enemy’s, despite being the attacker. This goes against normal expectations, where the attacker must figure having to take three times the losses! If the mafia army was anything like the Ukrainian one, with good leadership, high morale, and good training, the AFU would not advance an inch and bleed to death in the process.
Thanks for the explanation. Makes a lot of sense.
Putin give Shoigu until the beginning of October to stop the counteroffensive. The one that Putin said had failed a month ago.
Do they even realize what gibberish they blather?
@OFP
in my opinion the construction of propaganda is very energy-consuming, and self-intoxication must be impossible to avoid..
ineffectiveness, perversion arrive, impose themselves because the first need you respond to is to deceive your people, and after having results… as long as you manage to deceive, nothing is lost … everything ends up in “papier-mâché” and go ahead Potenkin!
if you are looking for a system to lose money, your chances of growing in the long term
choose a dictatorship!
dictatorship is a “cheap” system ! “Looser Inside”