21 april, 2024
Russian forces are expected to intensify their offensive and missile strikes on Ukraine in the coming weeks, taking advantage of the time gap before new U.S. aid arrives.
This is according to a report from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The ISW report highlights that the approval of the aid bill by the US Senate and its signing by President Joe Biden, along with the logistical challenges of delivering American assistance to the Ukrainian front line, will likely delay the impact of the aid on the situation for several weeks.
Analysts anticipate further deterioration of the situation on the front lines during this period, particularly if Russian forces escalate their attacks to exploit the time window before the arrival of new US aid.
Meanwhile, the Institute acknowledges that Ukrainian forces may face additional setbacks in the upcoming weeks as they await security assistance from the US to stabilize the front lines. However, they are expected to be able to counter the current Russian offensive if renewed US aid arrives promptly.
“The threat of an operationally significant Russian advance in the coming weeks remains, although the Ukrainian command may have more latitude to take short-term risks with dwindling supplies to prevent such an advance once it knows that more materiel will be arriving soon,” experts added.
Analysts predict that the occupiers will ramp up their offensive operations, including missile and drone strikes in the next few weeks, taking advantage of Ukrainian logistical challenges.
Russian forces continue, and in some areas, escalate offensive actions, capitalizing on unusually dry spring conditions and ongoing Ukrainian material shortages until Western security assistance arrives.
Despite tactical successes over the past six months, experts doubt Russian troops can achieve a breakthrough to dismantle the front line in Ukraine.
Nevertheless, the invaders could still gain operationally significant ground, targeting areas where Ukrainian defenses seem weak, especially west of Avdiivka, or where Russian forces can reach key objectives, such as near Chasiv Yar.
The Institute predicts that by June 2024, Ukraine’s operational readiness will improve, despite delays in American security assistance. Russian military planners might reconsider their large-scale offensive operation slated for June, but it could proceed as planned.
- On April 20, the US House of Representatives held a historic vote authorizing $95 billion in aid for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan.
I’ve said this a short while ago on another article and I warned my Oksana last night, after the vote for US aid was passed in the House. The roaches will do what they can to damage Ukraine’s fighting ability before the new aid arrives. I hope that Kyiv was prepared for this.
While the forever slow and sluggish Europe is discussing handing over more air defense to Ukraine, NOW is the time the country would need the stuff IN PLACE!
Those 1 million shells that were promised months ago, would come in very useful right now. I always wonder if the word urgency is in the European dictionary. It’s so fucking frustrating to watch the hot air machines, promise the world, but fail to deliver anything.
Those monkeys are good only at expelling copious amounts of CO2 gasses.
It was very quiet tonight in Odesa and Kyiv. Maybe they are waiting for the Senate vote on Tuesday. Anyhow, Ukraine should prepare for showers of missiles in the coming week. Europe did prove that they are neither willing nor capable of replacing US military aid. Maybe a military alliance with all willing allies could be an alternative to Nato for Ukraine. Europe south of the Danish border is a debacle.
They know as well as we know that the bill will pass the Senate. This is the quiet before the storm.
I agree Mike. Apparently Europe is simply not capable of following through on their military support commitments to Ukraine (or to Nato’s e.g 2% gdp military spending as far as that goes). Ever since they gutted their militaries and defense industries over the past several decades they are nothing but hot air balloons that preen and virtue signal while all the while free loading off of the US taxpayers.
I do wonder where those 1 million shells are that Europe found outside the EU that could be delivered to Ukraine “within weeks”. I think it has been many months since then…
After this huge war got started, Europe thought it would enter a new age of strength and determination, just find itself being too comfortable inside its pink bubble to exit it.