Hans Petter Midttun
Nonresident fellow hos Centre of Defence Strategies
The Norwegian National Defence College Centre of Defence Strategies
Mar 27, 2025
Russia wants to end the war by 2026
According to the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, Russia predicts the end of the war in Ukraine by 2026, as the prolonged confrontation makes it impossible for it to reach the level of the US and China.
This is a key statement.
Firstly, Russia is seeking strategic parity with the US and China. This is not an assessment. It is an ambition laid down in the Concept of the Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation.
Secondly, DIU is stressing that Russia’s war of aggression is unsustainable, supporting the assessment of many experts. Its economy is – unless the US prematurely lifts sanctions – is heading for collapse. Its Armed Forces is slowly running out of tanks, armoured personnel carriers and artillery. It is increasingly struggling to recruit personnel to fight in Ukraine. The DIU stresses that “the military campaign should not drag on for another 5-10 years, as this will deprive Russia of the opportunity to catch up with the United States and China.”
This is reflected on the battlefield. Russia is fielding fewer tanks and APCs during assaults. They are increasingly conducting infantry assaults without the support of heavy weapons. Soldiers are using motorbikes, civilian cars and ATVs.
The introduction of drones – in the air, at sea and on land – has changed the military balance. Ukraine is leading the transformation.
If present trends continue, by the end of March, Russia will have lost 39,400 men, 250 tanks, 540 APCs, 1,630 pieces of artillery, 46 MLRS, 36 Air Defence Systems and 3,530 means of transport.
What does this tell us?
The daily average of Russian casualties continues to fall (1,585 (Dec), 1,550 (Jan), 1,320 (Feb) and 1,271 (March)), reflecting a persistent reduction in the speed of advance and the intensity of fighting. If the present trends continue, Russia will, however, still lose more than half a million soldiers in 2025.
Despite an upkick in drone warfare, Ukraine is destroying fewer tanks and APCs than normal. This is a result of Russia fielding fewer heavier weapons. This is not only a reflection of the drone threat but also an indication that stockpiles are running low.
The ever-escalating drone war is reflected in Russian losses of systems that cannot remain idle. Russia has never lost more artillery and means of transport than this month. 1,630 pieces of artillery and 3,530 trucks, cars, ATVs, etc., equals its total losses during the first 7-8 months of the full-scale war. Additionally, its Air Defence Network is being depleted.
Unless the Trump Administration saves it, Russia is slowly bleeding out. Still, the US keep insisting that the aggressor should be rewarded by lifting sanctions and conceding Ukrainian territory to ensure a reset of the relationship.
My message is this: Ukraine and a Coalition of Like-Minded European Nations must continue to resist the US “leadership” and Russian aggression. The latter is slowly bleeding out.
Political cartoon: Christopher Weyant
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Comment from :
Todd Byars
Ukraine just needs to keep hitting Russian Bases and Infrastructure in Moscow and across all of Russia until their entire economy collapses. Russia can’t build tanks or drones or anything without factories, or power, or fuel or highways and rail to transport them. Also photos or videos of Moscow Burning or Russia Burning should continue to be shared with your allies and the world. Sincerely, Todd W. Byars, Tallahassee, Florida, USA
#CoalitionOfTheWilling We support all countries willing to help Ukraine by any means necessary. “Not just now but for as long as it takes…” Keir Starmer 🇬🇧 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦✊
Ukraine has NOT been defeated. Russia has NOT won the war. It is up to Ukraine to determine its own sacrifice tolerance, not anyone else. If the USA make the decision to cut, then they must cut and run, and Europe must take over. But the USA should NOT be given the final word on this.
The world has changed, yes. The USA is powerful, yes. But Signalgate shows the stunning degrees of incompetence, sycophancy, groupthink, childish hypermasculinity, analytic primitivity of the “top leadership”. These people must NOT be allowed to set the rules. They are not worthy of the responsibility.
The world has changed indeed. Just not the way the MAGA crowd intended. Europe, do your work. Now.
Meanwhile:
Ukraine Is Quietly Invading Russia Again.
“Kyiv’s forces are moving forward and steadily capturing ground in Belgorod, despite Kremlin claims that the attack has been thwarted.
As dawn broke over the western Russian region of Belgorod, a growing thrum could be heard near its heavily fortified border with Ukraine.
The sound came from a column of tanks and fighting vehicles storming across muddy fields, carving a path through minefields and lines of dragon’s teeth barricades.
It was the start of a new incursion into Russian territory.
That was last week and, despite the Kremlin’s claims that the attack was thwarted, a relatively small collection of Ukraine’s forces are moving forward and steadily capturing ground.
The battle plan has been closely guarded, and it is still unclear whether the Belgorod incursion was intended as a brief raid or a longer-term operation.
There is currently fierce fighting in the villages of Demidovka, Prilesye and Popovka, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a US think-tank.
Ukraine has also been carrying out a series of precision air strikes, targeting command posts, bridges, helicopters and depots.”
Which sanctions are the US lifting specifically towards Russia?
Christian Walentin Tønnesen, Trump has said he is “strongly considering large-scale sanctions” and tariffs on Russia until a ceasefire and peace deal is on the table. Tariffs comes across as a rather empty threat bearing in mind that the US/Russia trade is extremely limited. Sanctions is a long term effort, which alone has proven insufficient to bend Russia to the will of the international community. Trump has excluded the only means that Russia understands. Additionally, he has already given concessions before negotiations have properly started.
The Coalition of the Willing: Australia 🇦🇺, Belgium 🇧🇪, Bulgaria 🇧🇬, Canada 🇨🇦, Croatia 🇭🇷, Cyprus 🇨🇾, the Czech Republic 🇨🇿, Denmark 🇩🇰, Estonia 🇪🇪, Finland 🇫🇮, France 🇫🇷, Germany 🇩🇪, Greece 🇬🇷, Iceland 🇮🇸 , Italy 🇮🇹, Latvia 🇱🇻, Lithuania 🇱🇹, Luxembourg 🇱🇺, Netherlands 🇳🇱, New Zealand 🇳🇿, Norway 🇳🇴, Poland 🇵🇱, Portugal 🇵🇹, Romania 🇷🇴, Slovenian 🇸🇮, Spain 🇪🇸, Sweden 🇸🇪, Turkey 🇹🇷, Ukraine 🇺🇦, and United Kingdom 🇬🇧. Additionally the EU and NATO participated with observers.
A coalition of the willing is not equal to a coalition of like-minded countries. Moving forward, some of the countries probably need to be excluded to ensure the unity of efforts. Who does not share the common values and principles? Who seeks appeasement? Who is still failing to invest in security and defence? Who lacks resolve? What countries – if any – are not a logical part of a Coalition of Like-Minded??
What Trump has done in Saudi Arabia was not negotiations, it was a question and answer session. Trump asked what the mafiosi want, and the mafiosi answered.