Russia unlikely to pose near-term conventional military threat to NATO

Ukraine has effectively decimated Russia’s 2022 invasion force, leaving its military unable to project power beyond Ukraine and toward NATO

Lieutenant General Douglas Lute, former U.S. Permanent Representative to NATO from 2013-2017, stated this in an interview with Espreso TV.

“No one really knows what’s in Putin’s head. But from a military balance of power perspective, I believe that the war in Ukraine, thanks to the actions of the Ukrainian military and people, has inflicted such massive losses on the Russian armed forces that in the near future, Russia is unlikely to pose a conventional military threat to NATO. This refers to a combined attack using tanks, aviation, navy, and other means. Ukraine has effectively destroyed the Russian army that invaded in 2022, and this force is not yet capable of projecting its power beyond Ukraine and towards NATO,” the general noted.

According to him, NATO must remain vigilant regarding Russian long-range air and missile capabilities. These are the same drones, ballistic, and cruise missiles that strike Ukraine every night and could be used against the Alliance.

“NATO must also consider the threat of hybrid attacks — operations aimed at disorienting the Alliance, creating tension between allies, and a split between Europe and the United States. These Russian actions, in my opinion, will be the most serious challenges in the next few years,” Douglas Lute emphasized.