powervertical · RUSSIA TOMORROW: FIVE SCENARIOS FOR RUSSIA’S FUTURE
Feb 1, 2024
What will Russia look like in 10 years, or 20? How much longer will Vladimir Putin’s two-decade-plus rule last? Who — and what — will come after him? Will Russia continue its expansionist and anti-Western course? Or will it seek rapprochement? Will Russia remain intact, or will it disintegrate like the Soviet Union before it? And how should the United States and its allies prepare for all of these contingencies?
An important new report from The Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center that will be released this week seeks to address these and other questions about possible Russian futures.
The report, Five Scenarios For Russia’s Future, is the first in a series called Russia Tomorrow: Navigating a New Paradigm. On The Power Vertical Podcast this week, host Brian Whitmore, who is editing the series, speaks with the report’s author Casey Michel.
SHOW NOTES
A link to the launch event for Five Scenarios For Russia’s Future can be accessed here. And more information about the Atlantic Council Eursia Center’s paper series Russia Tomorrow: Navigating a New Paradigm can be accessed here.
Casey Michel’s published work can be accessed here.
PODCAST HERE:
A good discussion as usual. All five scenarios are plausible, but I would venture to suggest that the notion of putler running a “soft fascist” regime that could be replaced by a “hard fascist” regime (ie the late unlamented Prick-Goes-In, aka the hammer-murderer) is unlikely because putler already runs a hard fascist regime. His replacement in such a scenario will be more of the same. It is almost impossible to imagine anyone being even worse than the genocidal nazi rat. Patrushev or spastic dwarf Medvedev are both devils, but are they worse?
Addendum:
A previous frequent guest of Brian; Bill Browder’s close friend; Vladimir Kara-Murza, has gone off the grid. The alarm was raised by his poor wife.
Vladimir has similar credentials as his mentor; Boris Nemtsov and would be the ideal man to lead Russia out of hell and into civilization.
Unfortunately he suffers from severe neurological problems caused by poisoning and is fragile. He’s probably been transferred to yet another germ-ridden shithole.