Robin Horsfall
Jan 3, 2023
The Russian modus operandi in Ukraine has become massive artillery barrages followed by mopping up by infantry. After signally failing to walk in and take over they have resorted to WW2 tactics.
At the beginning of 2022 intelligence organisations estimated the Russian stockpile of all artillery shells of all calibres at 17 million. In ten months they have expended 10 million rounds at approximately 30,000 per day. Missile stocks including Iskander, Tochka and Kalibr Cruise are estimated to be down by 70%. These missiles take months to manufacture at enormous cost.
Russia is attempting to purchase artillery stocks from foreign partners and is shipping its eastern defence forces towards Ukraine, but no matter how hard they try they cannot sustain their front line forces for much longer. Thee weight of their bombardments has reduced significantly in recent weeks.
Combined with this, successful HIMARS attacks on ammunition depots near the front line are making it increasingly hard for Russia to mount offensive operations. Reports from Bakhmut tell of thousands of conscripts being marched into UA artillery and machine guns with heavy losses.
Russia is now relying on Iranian drones operating without precision to attack civilian infrastructure. More than 80% get shot down before reaching their random targets. Although these attacks attract the media because of the pointless loss of civilian life they have no effect on front line operations.
The only hope Russia has is to undermine the democratic alliance that supports Ukraine. Russia is spending large sums placing propaganda on internet media platforms and prompting controlled, blackmailed or bribed individuals to present a negative approach within western governments.
It is only a matter of time before they must go home because soon they will have little left to fight with.
Slava Ukraini!
Who Dares Shares
Robin Horsfall
This is proof that even an enormous supply of ammo cannot outweigh plain stupidity in strategy and tactics.
I don’t believe Russia will ever run out of ammo, but it will mean the intensity of the attacks will decrease.
Also, they have to switch to weapon systems that are way worse.
Russia can’t turn Kherson in another Mariupol, as they simply cannot move enough ammo quickly enough.
I cannot think of any war in which one side ran out of ammo, in worst case they do not have enough ammo of the kind they need to hold the lines effectively.
I am basically repeated Perun, the YouTuber, it is not my own opinion. He knows a lot more than me.