09/26/2025
Russia is regrouping its troops on several front lines in Ukraine. This regrouping appears to be a preparation for intensified offensive operations, but it has strange manifestations.
This is reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). At the same time, analysts are skeptical about the prospects of a new “great offensive” by the Russian Federation, noting that the “second army of the world” will lack the strength to advance in several directions simultaneously.
Russia is regrouping troops: what could this indicate?
According to military observer Konstantin Mashovets, the Russian military command is currently regrouping forces within the framework of the Russian Federation’s strategic plan for the current year to conduct several operational-level operations on the front line. The regrouping is taking place in a number of directions simultaneously, including the Kupyansky, Lymansky, Konstantinovsky, Pokrovsky, and Zaporizhzhia directions.
“Many of these Russian efforts are not complementary, as forces assigned to one sector of the front do not conduct offensive operations in a way that supports offensive operations in another sector ,” ISW clarified.
Since August, the Russian command has begun to transfer some of its forces from areas that are currently less priority for Moscow, in particular from Sumy and Kherson regions, to more priority areas in the east of our country.
Mashovets described some of these relocations as “strange.”
Thus, the observer stated that the Russian military command redeployed units of the 76th Airborne Division from the Sumy region to the area of responsibility of the 5th Combined Arms Army in the south of the Donetsk region, in particular to the areas of Novopavlivka and Velykymykhaylivka, as well as to the area of responsibility of the 35th Combined Arms Army in the Hulyaipol direction.
“The Russian airborne troops are among Russia’s relatively more capable forces, and Russia is inclined to redeploy these forces to its highest priority areas of the front, including the Kostyantynivka and Dobropillya areas,” ISW noted.
Mashovets, citing sources, noted that Russia will redeploy elements of the 76th Airborne Division to the west of the Zaporizhia region – to participate in offensive operations south of the city of Zaporizhia .
According to him, the Russian Federation is also creating operational reserves in the 58th Army, which operates in the Kherson direction, from the 25th Army, which currently operates in the Lyman direction, which is much more priority for Moscow, and not from units and formations of the 58th Army itself.
Similarly, the Russian command is creating operational reserves in the 3rd Combined Arms Army (former 2nd Luhansk Army Corps), operating in the Lyman direction, from units of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division (18th Army), operating in the Kherson direction.
“Simply put, it turned out that with regard to the operational deployment of its strike groups for the alleged Great Autumn Offensive, the enemy is forced to shuffle its units, formations, and armies like a deck of cards . I fully assume that in order to solve the task that is important for the enemy in a military-political sense – the “breakthrough to Kupyansk” and its subsequent capture,” Mashovets suggested.
ISW analysts also concluded that Russia’s decision to reorganize forces from the Lyman direction to the operational reserve in the Kherson direction and from the Kherson direction to the operational reserve in the Lyman direction is unusual, given Russia’s current focus on operations in the Donetsk region, particularly between Kostyantynivka and Pokrovsk.
“Russian forces have recently redeployed airborne troops and relatively elite marine units to the area, and some of these forces have reportedly since entered combat operations. Units of the Russian 177th Marine Regiment (Caspian Flotilla) and the 40th and 155th Marine Brigades (both Pacific Fleet) recently entered combat operations near Poltavka after redeploying from northern Sumy Oblast, while units of the 336th Marine Brigade (Baltic Fleet) are reportedly fighting near Novy Shakhovye after redeploying from the Novopavlovsk direction.”
“The Russian military command is reported to be holding units of the 61st Marine Brigade (Northern Fleet) in reserve in the near rear of the Dobropillya area after redeployment from the Kherson direction, although ISW continues to observe reports that units of the 61st Marine Brigade are operating in the Kherson direction, indicating that the brigade’s units are likely divided across the entire front,” the analysts noted.
Russian offensive on Kupyansk
According to Mashovets, Russia lacks the strength to attack simultaneously on several fronts. Such an attempt would jeopardize the occupiers’ offensive operations on Kupyansk.
The observer stated that the units of the 6th Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation fighting in Kupyansk and its northwestern outskirts are “fragile” and will be vulnerable to Ukrainian counterattacks if Russian troops cease attacks in Kupyansk and from the Russian bridgehead north of Kupyansk on the western (right) bank of the Oskil River.
Mashovets believes that Russia must simultaneously allocate forces and resources for offensive operations in Kupyansk and north of it to protect the flanks and logistics of the Russian troops advancing on Kupyansk. And to actually capture the city, the occupiers need at least one or two additional divisions to reinforce offensive operations.
The Russian military command, in his opinion, is aware of the need to strengthen, break through Ukrainian defensive positions and consolidate in the Kupyansk direction. However, this contradicts the Russian strategic goal of conducting several simultaneous offensive operations along the entire front line, which the occupiers have been trying to do since 2022.
Mashovets estimated that Russian troops would have to redistribute resources to stabilize the situation in the Kupyansk direction .
“Russian forces are likely to continue to have difficulty conducting simultaneous offensive operations on certain sections of the front line, especially in areas that do not receive redeployments of relatively combat-ready units from depriority sections of the front line. Russian forces may also have difficulty advancing on their priority areas — primarily the tactical areas of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka and Dobropillya , as well as the Pokrovske direction in Donetsk region — if the Russian military command sends reinforcements to other areas that may be more effective in Donetsk region,” ISW noted.
Russian command inflates data on “successes” in Ukraine
Where Russia fails to advance on the ground, it “advances” in the statements of the military command.
ISW analysts caught the Russian Defense Ministry lying about “successes at the front.”
Thus, the occupiers claimed to have captured at least 4,714 sq km of Ukrainian territory and 205 settlements from January 1 to September 25 – analysts claim that during the mentioned period, 3,434 sq km were occupied by Russian troops.
The invaders embellished reality by region:
- of the declared 205 sq km in Luhansk region, 151 sq km are actually occupied (the Russian Ministry of Defense “depicted” 36% of the allegedly captured territories);
- out of 3,308 sq km in the Donetsk region, 2,481 sq km are actually occupied (an increase of 33% );
- out of 261 sq km in Zaporizhia, 248 sq km were captured (the reality was embellished by 5% );
- out of 175 sq km in the Dnipropetrovsk region, Russians are present on 96 sq km (” 83% completed );
- of the declared 542 sq km in the Kharkiv region , Russia actually managed to occupy 255 sq km (they lied by 112% );
- Of the 223 sq km in Sumy region declared by the Russian Ministry of Defense, the Russians actually captured 210 sq km (the “error” between the declaration and reality is about 6% ).
Analysts emphasized that this is not the first time that the Russian command has exaggerated the advance of the occupation army. The new statement by the Russian Defense Ministry was only a continuation of Moscow’s tactics of ” using a large amount of false quantitative data to create the impression that Russian troops are advancing rapidly on the battlefield, although Russian troops continue to advance at slow pace.”
To do this, the occupiers, in particular, are trying to sneak into settlements they do not control in order to take pictures there with the Russian tricolor and create an excuse for the Russian Defense Ministry to declare the complete capture of these settlements.
“The Kremlin is trying to convince the West that Russia will inevitably achieve its initial military goals on the battlefield in order to force Ukraine and its partners to give in to Russian demands,” ISW summarized.
As OBOZ.UA reported, ISW previously confirmed that Ukrainian troops had advanced near Lyman and Pokrovsk, as well as in the Dobropillya area.
Analysts also revealed the aggressor’s plans for Kupyansk.
“The Kremlin is trying to convince the West that Russia will inevitably achieve its initial military goals on the battlefield in order to force Ukraine and its partners to give in to Russian demands,”
Who believes that anymore? Only monkeys that sling their shit for fun, like the fat Hungarian toad.