Russia has just released official figures showing a $74 billion budget deficit in the first six months of 2026—already larger than the deficit for the whole of last year.
In this video, we analyse the Kremlin’s own numbers and ask the big question:
How can Russia possibly turn this around?
With refinery attacks increasing, exports of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel being restricted, disruption to trade through the Sea of Azov, continuing Western sanctions and military spending still rising, the outlook appears to be getting worse, not better.
Could Russia be heading for its biggest budget deficit since the invasion of Ukraine began?
$74 billion in 6 months means a $150 billion budget deficit in 2026, providing the kremlin published the true numbers. I expect the deficit to be much larger than they are letting on.