Experts believe that if Russia’s plan succeeds, Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa will lose 90% of their electricity capacity, and heat supply will be reduced by 90%.

Russia wants to crush Ukraine and force its complete capitulation this winter by disabling the Ukrainian energy system and completely cutting off water, electricity, and heat to Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa.  The New York Times revealed details of an intercepted Russian plan to strike Ukraine’s energy sector.

It is noted that Russia estimates that approximately 70 ballistic missiles, 720 long-range drones, and 150 guided aerial bombs (hereinafter referred to as KABs – or guided air bombs) could cut off Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa from water, electricity, and heat. According to an analysis of Ukrainian Air Force data, this roughly corresponds to the number of ballistic missiles and drones that penetrate the Ukrainian air defense system on average each month.

The publication noted that Moscow is counting on the fact that one month of strikes can accomplish what four winters of attacks failed to do – destroy Ukraine’s energy system.

Journalists emphasized that if Russia’s plan succeeds, Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa will lose 90% of their electricity capacity, heat supply will be reduced by 90%, and there will be serious disruptions to water supply and sewerage systems.

Ukrainian officials and analysts, speaking to journalists, acknowledged that Russia may now have a better chance of success than at any time since the start of the full-scale war. They noted that Ukraine’s air defenses are depleted, while Russia’s arsenal of missiles and drones has grown significantly. At the same time, Ukraine’s energy infrastructure is extremely vulnerable.

The publication added that Russia’s confidence in its plan is largely due to Ukraine’s shortage of air defense assets, primarily American Patriot interceptor missiles, which provide the best defense against ballistic missiles. Although Ukraine has learned to intercept many Russian drones, the new class of jets, flying at hundreds of kilometers per hour, poses numerous challenges. However, Ukraine is rushing to develop new interceptors and is pressuring its Western allies to develop conventional weapons capable of shooting them down.Read also:

The publication recalled that on October 14, the Ukrainian Air Force reported that it had managed to shoot down only four of the 39 ballistic missiles launched by Russia that day. Many of the missiles were targeted specifically at energy infrastructure.

(C)UNIAN 2026