May 10, 2026

Moscow also loses revenue from energy exports in addition to failing on the fronts

Russian forces have failed to achieve any significant operational breakthrough on the front line over the past year, while Ukrainian Defense Forces expanded their battlefield gains during the winter and spring of 2026, reports the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Analysts noted that despite the “ceasefire” declared by Russia from May 9 to 11, fighting continued in certain sectors of the front. At the same time, the overall pace of operations somewhat decreased.

ISW pointed out that the ceasefire effectively lacked clearly defined enforcement and monitoring mechanisms. According to experts, the only publicly stated condition was that Ukraine refrain from striking Moscow during the May 9 parade, which Kyiv observed.

“The prevalence of mutual accusations and continued localized activity from the early hours of the ceasefire highlights the fact that ceasefires without explicit enforcement mechanisms, credible monitoring, and defined dispute resolution processes are unlikely to hold,” the report said.

Russia used ceasefire to regroup

According to ISW, Russian forces may have used the pause for troop rotations, redeployment of reserves, and logistical preparations for future offensive actions.

At the same time, analysts stressed that Ukrainian defenses continue to contain the Russian offensive and prevent the Kremlin from achieving results Moscow could present as major victories by May 9.

The report states that since October 2025, Russian troops have failed to make significant advances near Kostiantynivka, one of the key sectors of Ukraine’s fortified defense line.

Ukraine expands gains on battlefield

Meanwhile, ISW states Ukrainian forces have achieved their most significant battlefield successes since the operation in Russia’s Kursk region in August 2024.

Analysts recalled that the Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated a significant part of Kupiansk in the fall of 2025 and also regained more than 400 square kilometers of territory in southern Ukraine during counteroffensives in the winter and spring of 2026.

In addition, Ukrainian troops liberated several settlements in the western Zaporizhzhia region in late April.

Strikes on Russian logistics affected offensive operations

ISW also highlighted the intensification of Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign targeting Russian logistics, military equipment, and oil infrastructure.

Experts believe this has reduced Russia’s ability to conduct large-scale offensive operations and disrupted Russian communications systems and drones on the battlefield.

Analysts also mentioned Russia’s difficulties following restrictions on the use of Starlink terminals in occupied territories, which created additional challenges for Russian forces.

Earlier, the media reported that Russia repeatedly violated the ceasefire regime planned for May 9. Ukraine came under attacks involving drones, missiles, and guided aerial bombs, although Russia had pledged not to launch strikes and threatened to attack central Kyiv if the ceasefire agreement was not observed.

https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russia-warns-armenia-against-eu-path-threatens-1778391386.html