May 25, 2025
Russia’s military advantage against Ukraine is declining, the Washington Post (WP) reported on May 24, citing U.S., European, and Ukrainian officials and military experts.
While Russia’s military difficulties could be an opportunity for Ukraine’s allies to mount pressure against Moscow in hopes of securing a ceasefire, U.S. President Donald Trump has backed away from international sanctions efforts and appears increasingly unwilling to challenge Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Moscow faces critical shortages of weapons and manpower, making the time ripe for escalated pressure, multiple officials told the WP, many speaking on the condition of anonymity.
“Russia is very gradually taking bits of territory still, but at an unsustainably high cost,” said Richard Barrons, the former head of the United Kingdom’s Joint Forces Command.
A Ukrainian security official told the WP that Russia was not able to gain ground despite its significant personnel advantages and that the slowed advance may be partly a result of Ukraine’s incursion in Kursk Oblast, which aimed to divert Russia’s military resources from the front lines.
“Russia is not able to take any ground, and this is the situation pretty much since the end of the Ukrainian counteroffensive,” the official said, referring to Ukraine’s attempt to retake Russian-occupied territories in 2023.
“Despite the fact that they still have three-to-one superiority in number of troops — and maybe even bigger in terms of (weapons) systems — it’s still not enough.”
Western experts also calculate that Russia’s arsenal of tanks is likely to run out in the next few months, the WP reported.
“The Russians can continue fighting, but … the force will become more and more de-mechanized over time, and that does put a timeline on how long they can sustain the current way they operate,” Jack Watling, a senior research fellow for land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute in London, told the WP.
https://kyivindependent.com/russia-losing-battlefield-edge-in-war-against-ukraine-wp-reports
“The Russians can continue fighting, but … the force will become more and more de-mechanized over time, and that does put a timeline on how long they can sustain the current way they operate,”
For all practical purposes, the enemy’s window of opportunity for any major breakthrough, backed up by a sufficient force of mechanized combat and support units, has already been over for some time now. And, things are getting worse by the day.
The war has been turning into a drone war for quite a while, with heavy weapons hiding underground or in thick brush under heavy camouflage whenever possible. Whoever finds a solution to defeating the opponent’s drones or overpowers them with his own, can stand a chance to win. The balance of win or lose is found in the fine and delicate details of electronic circuits, software, computers, and a viable way to combine them, getting the best and most effective strategies and tactics.
I certainly do hope that at least some Western powers are very actively helping Ukraine with drone and EW technology and corresponding methods to combat both. It’s to their interest, too, and this increases Ukraine’s chance to come out on top.