21 June 2026
The Kremlin will have to declare mass mobilization to continue the war with Ukraine, as the Russian military-industrial complex is operating at its limits and is unable to increase arms production, the Financial Times reports , citing three Western intelligence officials. According to sources, Russia’s military production is stagnating, with the exception of unmanned systems and long-range weapons, where the bulk of resources are being directed. Meanwhile, record-low unemployment is making it difficult to attract qualified specialists to high-tech development.
“Without investment, it’s impossible to increase weapons production, and that will take years,” one source noted. Ukraine, by contrast, is rapidly developing medium- and long-range unmanned systems, which have already reduced the significance of Russia’s advantage in troop numbers and are actively hindering the enemy’s advance along the front. Against this backdrop, an FT source involved in informal contacts on Ukraine described increasing mobilization as the Kremlin’s “only option.” He argued that the Russian army is lagging behind and is either struggling to find belated responses to the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ innovative solutions or “not finding any at all.”
Despite this, President Vladimir Putin remains confident that Russia is capable of achieving its goals, and that “victory” over Ukraine is only a matter of time, the publication’s sources noted. According to them, he spends a significant portion of his time micromanaging military operations and receives regular reports, sometimes twice a day, from Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov.
According to estimates by analysts at the Finnish OSINT project Black Bird Group, Russian troops seized 164 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory from February to May, compared to 1,151 square kilometers during the same period last year. Ukrainian drones are targeting logistics, airfields, military convoys, and oil refineries, gradually eroding Putin’s army’s resource advantage. “Russia’s problem is that its current tactics don’t provide the tools for major successes, and it’s been unable to find new ones,” notes Black Bird co-founder Emil Kastehjelmi.
“Russia will look for various ways to influence the situation in Ukraine, but, short of nuclear weapons, I don’t think it will be able to really change the course of the fighting in the coming months unless it announces another mobilization,” says Konrad Muzyka, director of the Polish analytical group Rochan Consulting.
Since December 2025, the rate of replenishment of the Russian army has been lower than losses at the front, according to the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). Furthermore, the budget deficit is growing, attracting contract soldiers with generous bonuses. Officials in Europe have not ruled out the possibility that the Kremlin could announce a new mobilization after the September State Duma elections if losses at the front continue to be high.
I’m not sure how mass mobilization can work if mafia land can’t produce enough weapons.
The wasted primitive minds of the potato generals still think you can make up for a lack of weapons and a lack of brains in their leadership with more meat. Have fun with that concept.
Now that putler is micromanaging his war, we can assume he has no faith in his potato generals. This is excellent news for Ukraine.
Yeah, the mafia-terrorist state is going from bad to worse.
This whole scenareo is laying bare that the orcish encomy, infrustructure, and ability to develop anything w/o external support is undoable. The oil industry – support from US companies, argiculture – US farm equipment, rockets and space – IDK but suspect industrial espionage, they have nothing, have developed nothing unique to the world, IMHO they are ticks.