05/21/2024 – Translated from Ukrainian via Google and OFP

Sooner or later, a line of military contact will pass through the three regions of Ukraine bordering the Russian Federation – Chernigov, Sumy and Kharkov , but no one today can say when exactly the Russian occupation army will begin to stretch the front line. However, it is possible that at present the enemy is in no hurry to invade the Sumy region, because he fears for the Russian town of Sudzha, located within the reach of Ukrainian artillery. As soon as hostilities begin in this area, this settlement will also feel them.

The arrival of Western military aid to the front is already quite noticeable. First of all, the Ukrainian army no longer experiences shell hunger. Further deliveries will be related not only to ammunition, but also to new weapons. The entry of F-16 fighters will allow the counter-offensive to begin. This opinion was expressed in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA by pilot-instructor, reserve colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, military expert Roman Svitan.

– At the Olenya airfield in the Murmansk region of the Russian Federation, there is an increased concentration of bombers, 28 units in total, including Tu-95MS, Tu-22M3, Tu-160 and An-12. In your opinion, what is the reason? Is it possible that the enemy is preparing a large-scale attack on Ukraine?

– Regarding a large-scale attack, that’s a big question. But the fact that the planes are currently located at the main airfield of the Russians – and this is Olenya – is a fact. Previously, the main airfield was Engels, but now they are afraid to place planes there, we get them there. So while aviation is being concentrated in the Murmansk region, in fact we have driven them there.

It is too early to say with 100% certainty that an attack is being prepared there. This could be the redeployment of aircraft to this airfield and nothing more. But at any moment five planes can take off from here and carry out a combat mission. Although we are already ready for these air raids. By and large, for us this is a statement of fact.

As soon as we start reaching Olenya – and this is more than 1,500 kilometers – then, most likely, they will have to drive the planes beyond the Urals. But the fact is that the strategic bomber doesn’t care where it is, it will go to the launch point, into the Caspian Sea. The only question is what will be the flight time and the kerosene burned.

– Indeed, the distance from Ukraine to Olenye is about 1,700 kilometers. Do we have any means, particularly those provided by the Allies, that could cover this distance?

– Our allies do not provide us with such funds. A Tomahawk missile could cover such a distance by 2-2.5 thousand kilometers. Until they give us such missiles, until we reach our allies with such a range, we will have to use only our own drones. In principle, they can reach this airfield. Yes, very difficult, but possible.

Another option for getting them is the work of our intelligence groups, that is, the foreign intelligence service or the Main Intelligence Directorate. There is no other way to get them.

– For several weeks in a row, the danger of an invasion of the enemy army into the Sumy region has been discussed. According to information from the Sumy OVA, on May 19, the enemy carried out 43 attacks on the border region. Do you think that this is a purely psychological moment or does the enemy still have the opportunity to expand the front line?

– Based on the logic of combat operations, the borders of the Sumy, Chernigov and Kharkov regions should have long ago become a line of military conflict. Why is there still no front line there? There are many reasons, from political to military.

Russia and I have 400 kilometers of front in Donbass and 600 kilometers of border, through which we once traded. That is, we trade here, but we fight here. But it shouldn’t be that way.

The entire border should be – and eventually will be – the front line. Part of the Chernihiv region, which borders the Bryansk region, part of the Sumy region, which borders the Bryansk and Kursk regions and, of course, the Kharkov region, which borders the Belgorod region of Russia. That is, those about 100 kilometers of front in the Kharkov region will stretch to 500-600 kilometers. This could be in a day or a year. But it will still happen.

There is nothing unusual about this. That’s why we build fortifications and form defense lines along the borders. The question is when the Russians will start fighting. Or we’ll start them. Everything will depend on who needs it more, is more important and who has more opportunities.

Perhaps the Russians are still afraid to move in the Sumy region, because the city of Sudzha is located very close to the border, and it will immediately come under our artillery attacks as soon as they start moving there. They understand this and calculate it. Unlike Belgorod, which is located much further from the border, it can only be reached with long-range weapons.

Although, by and large, I think as soon as the Russians are prepared, they will begin hostilities. It is simply beneficial for them to start them – they need to stretch the front line before striking Donbass. They want to reduce the density of our troops in the Donetsk direction, and there is only one mechanism for this: stretching the line of combat contact. Moreover, we are talking not only about the Sumy region, but about any area.

– You said: “before the attack on Donbass.” Did you mean a possible summer offensive by the enemy?

– This is not a summer offensive. The enemy’s offensive operation is underway. They have simply come up against our line of defense in the Donbass and are trying to push through it. This does not work out because there is a high density of troops there. Therefore, they create local points of contact in other places in order to push our forces there.

They partially succeed. For example, the 92nd brigade was transferred from Chasovoy Yar to Kharkov. This is what they want to achieve along the entire front line. But this is not a new offensive, not some new operations. These are the same, only with a different intensity.

As for real offensive actions, Russia is now preparing an autumn-winter campaign, gathering forces and resources, they are preparing units in the rear, beyond the Urals. The goal is to continue with the tasks they left off during the summer campaign. Most likely, the goals will be the same: access to the administrative borders of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions. Perhaps the Zaporozhye direction will be added. That’s all.

– Clarify please. The enemy is trying to stretch the front line and disperse our forces. But in this way he disperses his forces, isn’t it?

– Yes, sure. But they are going to distract part of their troops. But a small part. It’s not hundreds of thousands. These are one and a half to two tens of thousands of Russians who are trying to attack somewhere. However, they tie up our reserves. And we have fewer troops than the Russians. And if so, they will use exactly this technique – stretching troops in different directions.

– Do you see changes at the front, which may indirectly indicate that Western assistance has already arrived?

– Yes, help comes and definitely changes the situation. Due to the fact that we received a sufficient amount of ammunition, we were even able to remove several brigades from the front without any problems for the front itself. For example, they removed it from Chasovoy Yar, but this fortified area still stands. Why? Because they added ammunition there.

This gives us hope that we can cope even with the strength we have. And then comes not only the quantity of ammunition, but also the nomenclature. 300-kilometer ATACMS are coming in, 9-kilometer MANPADS have already appeared. Why did we start shooting down Russian planes? They fired back up to 5 kilometers from the line of combat contact, knowing that we had 5-kilometer MANPADS. But now they can’t even shoot back because we intercept them earlier.

The range of weapons is very important. New weapons are coming, and in sufficient quantities. And this flow is increasing. An F-16 is approaching ahead, and this is not a machine for “flying.” This is a machine for using air-launched weapons – missiles, aerial bombs, cruise missiles. This is a whole range of new weapons, which will make it possible to switch to counter-offensive operations in some positions. Therefore, the prospect ahead is quite encouraging.

https://war.obozrevatel.com/ukrainskie-voinyi-uverenno-uderzhivayut-pozitsii-v-genshtabe-ozvuchili-poteri-armii-rf-na-harkovschine.htm