January 9, 2025
- Russia’s economic pain will intensify this year, according to the Atlantic Council.
- The think tank said Russia is feeling the full effects of sanctions after nearly three years of war.
- Continued strain could cause Moscow to end the war in Ukraine this year, a note from the group said.
After almost three years of waging war in Ukraine, Russia is feeling the full impact of its economic punishment from the West — and it could prompt the Kremlin to end the war in Ukraine as soon as this year, a note from the Atlantic Council said this week.
The think tank pointed to the pressures building on Russia’s economy, primarily those stemming from Western sanctions. The sanctions packages over the last several years have included measures like cutting Russia off from SWIFT, the international financial communication system, as well as trade restrictions on several of Russia’s key exports, like oil and gas.
According to Mark Temnycky, a fellow at the think tank, those measures have had a definite impact on Russia’s economy, even after the Kremlin seemed to shrug off the initial volley of restrictions.
“Three years later, the picture looks different. The Russian economy is now beginning to see the full effects of international sanctions. If these trends continue, then the full impact of these financial punishments, combined with strong Ukrainian resistance to Russian forces, could at last put enough pressure on the Kremlin to end its war,” Temnycky said.
He pointed to various signs of economic strain in Russia, which suggested that the nation may not be able to continue its war effort for much longer.
Russia’s ruble, for one, has plunged more than 50% in value against the dollar and the euro — partly due to sanctions pressure on Russian institutions, according to an analysis from the Kyiv School of Economics. The ruble traded at around 102 against the dollar on Thursday, close to the lowest level since Russia first began its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Russia’s energy business also appears to be struggling after years of trade restrictions and dwindling oil prices. Russia’s total energy revenue tumbled by nearly a quarter in 2023, and the government expects oil and gas revenue to keep shrinking until 2027, according to a draft budget viewed by Bloomberg.
Russian inflation is also soaring, with consumer prices rising 9.5% year-over-year in the last week of December, according to the nation’s central bank.
Even Putin has acknowledged that Russia’s inflation rate was “alarming,” a rare admission from the Russian leader of the problems facing the country.
“Putin’s points on inflation were telling. The Russian leader seldom discusses problems pertaining to Russian society. Thus, the fact that he felt the need to acknowledge inflation as a serious issue suggests that something greater is afoot,” Temnycky said, adding that Russia appears to be on track to enter a recession in 2025.
Other economists have warned of more pain headed for Russia’s economy in the coming year. The nation could see a “significant strain” on its budget in 2025, with the economy at risk of falling into a period of Soviet-style stagnation, economic experts previously told BI.
“Putin and the Kremlin will have to determine how to try to address these financial woes,” Temycky added. “This suggests that 2025 will be a difficult year for Russians and the economy. Time will tell how significant these events will be.”
Okay, Western sanctions does have an impact on the mafia economy. However, I think that Ukraine’s version of sanctions are at least just as effective, but I would wager to say that the numerous attacks and destruction on the crime syndicate’s oil refineries and oil depots are more effective.
At any rate, the mafia economy is teetering on the brink of collapse, and this is great news, regardless of the fears of the professional weaklings in the West.
Since putler’s all out genocide commenced, there have been a flurry of “putler’s finished” articles. Unfortunately all turn out to be wishful thinking .
As for sanctions, we have been informed since 2014 that they are “working.”
Some putinaZi banks inexplicably are still allowed to use SWIFT.
Rail, road, air and sea links between putlerstan, Europe and North America have continued. PutinaZi visas have not been cancelled and only a fraction of putinaZi property has been seized.
PutinaZi oil is still moving freely about, carried by unseaworthy rust buckets.
China and India have not been punished in any way for their evil support. Ditto every shithole in the world.
Until these matters are properly dealt with, the cauldron of devilry will still be in business.
I hope I’m wrong.
Look at their current collection of “combat” vehicles and see an economy on the brink of collapse.
How many of these motherfuckers have got to be smoked and how much of their equipment has to be destroyed before they are absolutely forced to move out?
Good question. If I had to take an educated guess, I’d say that most of them who must be fried have already been fried.