Russia is becoming increasingly dependent on China despite the decline in trade, – SVR

The main factor in the decline in trade was the fall in energy prices.

Trade volumes between China and Russia fell to $163.6 billion in the first nine months of 2025, a 9.4% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. Nevertheless, Moscow’s dependence on Beijing continues to grow, according to the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine (SVR).

It is noted that in 2025, China’s exports to Russia decreased by 11.3% to $73.6 billion. At the same time, Russian exports to China decreased by 7.7% to $90 billion.

The SVR stated that the main factor behind the decline was falling energy prices. According to intelligence data, the value of Russian energy exports to China fell by 18.9% (by $14 billion) from January to September. Specifically, oil exports fell by 8.1% in physical volume and 21% in monetary terms due to the drop in the price of Brent.

Furthermore, the SVR noted that the Russian market is oversaturated with Chinese cars. Demand for these vehicles has fallen by 56% following record deliveries in 2024.

The SVR also noted that logistical disruptions have caused additional pressure. Truck queues formed at the border between China and Kazakhstan in the fall, and the cost of shipping from China to Russia has increased: by 25% by rail (up to $5,000) and by 35% by road (up to $15,000 for a 20-ton truck). Moreover, some shipping operators, including CStar Line from the UAE and STF Shipping from China, have reduced their services to Russian ports due to financial constraints.Read also:

The SVR concluded that the Russian economy’s dependence on energy and metal exports, much of which is sold to China, makes it increasingly vulnerable to fluctuations in demand in the Chinese market and increases its dependence on Beijing.

(c)UNIAN 2025