Europe’s Russia diagnosis has never been sharper. The prescription hasn’t changed
At Munich, 2026’s biggest security summit got everything right — except the follow-through
BY IRYNA KRASNOSHTAN
16/02/2026
European leaders arrived in Munich with a new consensus: Russia has no genuine intention of ending this war. They also arrived with the same toolkit they’ve had since 2022.
That gap—between the diagnosis and the prescription—defined the 62nd Munich Security Conference. The MSC’s annual report, titled “Under Destruction,” laid out the erosion of the rules-based order, democratic backsliding, and rising populism with precision. But precision in analysis has never been Europe’s problem. Acting on it has.
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham told the conference that the US needs to provide Tomahawks for Ukraine, that Russia should be designated a terrorist state for kidnapping Ukrainian children, and that Putin will not stop himself—he needs to be stopped. Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal said the same.
Their bipartisan bill for tougher sanctions has been sitting in Congress for a year. None of it has moved an inch.
While they spoke in Munich, President Trump posted that “Russia wants to make a deal and Zelensky is going to have to get moving, otherwise he’s going to miss a great opportunity.”
Two continents, two languages
The divide between American and European rhetoric at this year’s conference ran deeper than tone.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivered the keynote—a marked contrast to JD Vance’s speech at last year’s conference, where the Vice President lectured Europeans about free speech, never mentioned Russia as a threat, and was met with silence. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called Rubio’s speech “very much reassuring.”
Rubio invoked shared history and intertwined fates, even drawing a standing ovation.
But beneath the polished delivery, the substance echoed Vance: criticism of European mass migration, warnings of “civilisation erasure,” and the insistence that Europe cannot solve Gaza or Ukraine without Washington.
The message, more diplomatically packaged: America wants strong allies, not dependent ones.
When discussing the new global order, the split crystallized: EU High Representative Kaja Kallas argued that new rules must include accountability for those who break international norms—and pushed back directly: “When America goes to war, we go too and our people die. So to be a superpower, you need us.”
US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz presented the panel with a “Make the United Nations Great Again” hat and argued the international body needed to be put “on a diet.”
European leaders, for their part, still want the partnership.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned, in English: “In the era of great power rivalry, even the United States will not be powerful enough to go it alone.”
The desire is genuine. Whether Washington reciprocates beyond rhetoric remains the open question.
The reality check
The most revealing moments at MSC 2026 came when specific proposals met specific questions—and fell apart.
The shadow fleet: discussed at length, with France exploring legislative measures to stop Russian oil tankers rather than just temporarily blocking them. In January, fourteen European countries announced coordinated measures to restrict Baltic Sea access for these vessels. Yet the Danish straits, through which many tankers pass, remain open.
The contact line: no European official could explain how to monitor 700 kilometers of front line in any potential ceasefire. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha—deliberately or not—offered no detail on what the American security guarantee backstop should look like.
Troops on the ground: President Macron ruled out deploying forces from the “Coalition of the Willing” before a ceasefire, saying such a step could be seen as escalatory and that no consensus exists among allies.
Each of these represents the same pattern: a problem correctly identified, followed by solutions that don’t survive contact with reality.
What Zelenskyy made visible
Ukraine calibrated its message carefully—a marked shift from the sharper tone at Davos that had drawn concern from European officials. At Munich, Zelenskyy balanced gratitude with specificity, using visual aids to show the scale of the 12 February Russian attack: 24 ballistic missiles and over 200 drones, intercepted only because Patriot interceptors arrived days earlier.
He laid out the daily reality: 6,000 combat drones, 158 missiles, and 5,500 glide bombs per month, with no undamaged energy plant left in the country. “Ukrainians are people, not terminators. Our people are dying too,” he said—a message that cut against the constant European admiration for Ukraine’s “resilience.” That resilience has a cost in human suffering, and it should not be taken for granted.
His central strategic message was blunter: Europe is practically absent from the peace negotiations, and Ukraine—the country being bombed daily—is the one lobbying for its allies to be included in talks about its own future.
“The Europeans will have to agree to any possible deal, because they will be an essential part of any security guarantees, any prosperity package, any sanctions relief, any decisions on the European future for Ukraine. No peace without the Europeans.”
Then he went further: Europe’s “rearticulated nuclear deterrent” should include special cooperation, joint exercises, and shared security interests with partners.
While French nuclear doctrine currently limits such sharing, Macron explicitly opened the door. Merz publicly engaged on the question in his own speech. If this moves beyond conference rhetoric, it would represent the most significant shift in European defense architecture since the Cold War.
But that “if” is doing a lot of work—and Munich has historically been better at generating signals than delivering follow-through.
The gap between words and war
The conference left European leaders seeing clearly that Russia has no genuine intention of ending this war. They see the Russian economy degrading. They agree more pressure is needed. They even articulate what that pressure should look like—tougher sanctions, expanded military support, credible deterrence.
What they cannot seem to do is act at the speed the war demands. The prescriptions remain incremental while the disease accelerates.
Zelenskyy’s closing message pointed to the answer European leaders haven’t fully embraced: “Our wall of drones is your wall of drones. Our expertise in drones is part of your security. Our ability to stop assaults and Russian sabotage can also be part of your defense.”
Ukraine is already making the contribution to European security that Munich spent three days discussing. The question is whether Europe will match it.
Iryna Krasnoshtan
Iryna Krasnoshtan, Program Director of the International Center for Ukrainian Victory. Iryna served as Political Analyst at the NATO Representation to Ukraine in 2017-2023. She was also a James S. Denton Transatlantic Fellowship holder with the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) in 2022.
Editor’s note. The opinions expressed in our Opinion section belong to their authors. Euromaidan Press’ editorial team may or may not share them.
❗️Putin is dragging out peace talks to buy time and reduce Western pressure, — Bloomberg
▪️While negotiations continue, Russia is intensifying missile and drone strikes on Ukraine, especially targeting energy infrastructure.
▪️DTEK reports that about 80% of thermal power generation has been destroyed or damaged. Before the war, these plants provided roughly two-thirds of thermal energy, supplying both electricity and heating.
▪️Cities face blackouts, cold homes, and water shortages; hundreds of thousands have left the capital.
▪️The Kremlin’s goal is to pressure civilians and convince the world that a Russian victory is inevitable, while support for Ukraine only delays the outcome.
▪️After almost four years of war, Russia controls around 20% of Ukrainian territory and is advancing slowly at a high cost.
▪️Russian losses are estimated at up to 1.2 million military personnel killed, wounded, or missing; about 40% of state spending goes to defense, straining the economy.
EU assisting nazi shithole countries. From Ukraine Breaking News :
🇪🇺🇭🇺 The European Commission has said that Hungary may import Russian oil via Croatia — as an exception.
Hungary and Slovakia are the only EU countries currently allowed to import Russian oil. This temporary route through Croatian ports is permitted because the Druzhba pipeline is out of service and Hungary has no access to the sea.
The exception is temporary — until the pipeline is restored or the EU imposes a full ban on Russian oil imports. Hungary must report every three months to the European Commission on how much oil it imports.
EC spokeswoman Anna-Kaisa Itkonen noted that the Druzhba pipeline went offline due to Russian attacks and emphasized that neither Hungary nor Slovakia is facing an energy crisis — their reserves are sufficient for at least three months.
▪️ On February 15, Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó and Slovak Economy Minister Denisa Saková sent a joint letter to Croatia requesting permission to transport Russian oil through Croatian ports.
▪️Croatian Economy Minister Ante Šušnjar responded that buying Russian oil helps fund the war and attacks on the Ukrainian people. He added that Croatia will help find a solution within EU law.
Croatia have rejected any chance of oil going through their country to Hungary. This was stated by Jake Broe last night.
Putrid OrbanaZi scum :
❗️ “If Ukraine joins the European Union, the EU would become involved in Ukraine’s war. That is something we definitely do not want. The war in Ukraine is not our war. We have no responsibility for it. Ukraine is fighting for itself, not for us. European countries are protected by NATO, not by Ukraine. That is why we have kept our channels with Russia open and ensured that Hungarian taxpayers’ money is not sent to Ukraine.” — Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó
From Ukraine Breaking News
> Trump posted that “Russia wants to make a deal and Zelensky is going to have to get moving, otherwise he’s going to miss a great opportunity.”
Translation: putler has told trumpkov that he (trumpkov)/his family can get rich from a deal, so trumpkov is anxious for the payoff.