According to IEA forecasts, by 2030 Russia will lose about $ 1 trillion in revenues that were brought by the export of natural resources.

The war against Ukraine forever deprived the Russian Federation of the status of a leading energy power, and also hastened the end of the “golden gas age” and accelerated the transition of the world to renewable energy sources.

This is stated in the annual forecast of the International Energy Agency (IEA).

“Until February 24, Russia was the world’s first exporter of fossil energy resources. But Russia has lost its most important customer and market – Europe. It will be very difficult for Russia to compensate for the loss of the European market. It is difficult both economically, technologically and politically. Therefore, the production and export of oil and gas from Russia will decline in the coming years. Russia will play a much smaller role in global energy,” Fatih Birol, head of the IEA, said at a briefing.

According to IEA forecasts, by 2030 Russia will lose about $ 1 trillion in revenues that were brought by the export of natural resources. 

In addition, Russian fossil fuel exports will never return to 2021 levels. At the same time, it will not be easy for Russia to reorient the market to Asia. This is especially true for natural gas. 

“Some people think that where Europe loses, China wins. It’s not so simple. In addition to infrastructure restrictions, China is also changing, and gas demand growth in China will be much more modest than what it was before. Therefore, we do not see China demand for another major gas pipeline from Russia, in addition to the Power of Siberia, Birol noted. 

IEA experts are also confident that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which resulted in a sharp reduction in demand for Russian energy resources in Europe, will accelerate the “green revolution” in the energy sector. 

“As a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the world’s energy industry is rapidly changing before our eyes. It is changing not for a while, but for decades. The measures taken by authorities around the world in response to the crisis promise a historic, decisive turn towards a cleaner, more affordable and safer energy system future,” Birol added. 

In addition, the IEA report noted that coal consumption will also decrease. In turn, the demand for natural gas will stabilize by the end of the decade, and the transition to electric vehicles will lead to the fact that the demand for oil will begin to decline in the mid-2030s. 

Refusal of Russian energy resources: what is known

After the start of a full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine in February 2022, more and more world countries began to abandon Russian energy resources.

At the end of October 2022, European Commissioner for the Internal Market Thierry Breton announced that the European Union had finally become independent of natural gas supplies from the Russian Federation. According to Breton, the Russian Federation has ceased to be a reliable partner for Europe, in connection with which the EU acquired 155 billion cubic meters from other sources. 

At the same time, in early September, a study by the Finnish Center for Energy and Clean Air Research (CREA) showed that Russia still receives record revenues from the sale of energy resources, which significantly exceed its costs for the war against Ukraine.

(C)UNIAN 2022