January 29, 2025

For the first time in many years, Russia is close to losing its leading position in the global grain market. In 2025, grain exports from the country abroad will decrease by a third, predicts the Russian Grain Union, one of the largest specialized associations, which includes almost 300 agricultural organizations that provide 90% of national grain exports.

According to RZS estimates, farmers will sell 48-49 million tons of grain abroad this year, compared to 72 million tons last year. Wheat exports may decrease to 41-42 million tons, RZS President Arkady Zlochevsky said at a press conference. Compared to last year, the decline will be more than 16 million tons, or 28%.

Grain exports, which are among the top sources of foreign exchange earnings for the economy and brought in $15.5 billion in 2023, are already falling rapidly. According to  the ProZerno center, at the end of January, volumes had decreased by 42% year-on-year, and since the beginning of the month, farmers have exported about 2.5 million tons. There has always been a decline in January, “but never by half,” notes Zlochevsky.

Grain exports are declining following the harvest, which was hit by bad weather and the government’s decision to ban seed imports. Over the past agricultural year, grain harvests fell by 14%, to 125 million tons, and wheat harvests by 16%, to 82 million. Of this volume, about 10 million tons of wheat, according to Zlochevsky, simply rotted in barns, since the country lacks the capacity to properly store it.

Compared to the record-breaking 2022, farmers have lost a fifth of their harvest. And this is also the result of difficulties with access to quality seeds and Western equipment, write experts from the Bank of Finland Institute for Developing Economies (BOFIT). Zlochevsky agrees: the authorities have introduced quotas on seed imports, but domestic analogues yield 20-30% less harvest. The reserves of previously imported seeds have been exhausted, the president of the RGU complains: “If last season this factor affected 30-40% of the harvest at most, now it will affect 70%, because the quota volume simply will not give more.” In 2025, the grain harvest may drop to 100 million tons, the union predicts.

An additional blow to farmers was the grain export duties that have been in effect since 2021, and the result of state policy in agriculture will be a drop in harvests “to the Soviet level, below the baseboards,” Zlochevsky said: “This is a hoax <…> no matter what inadequate actions the state takes, it will not cope with the situation.”

https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/01/29/rossiya-stolknulas-sobvalnim-padeniem-eksporta-zerna-a153611