July 22
Lukashenko (Uncle Luka) is struggling to survive.
Belarus has been ruled by this soviet style dictator since 1994. The people of Belarus hope for a free democratic future like their Polish and Ukrainian neighbours.
Putin has pressured Lukashenko to commit his small army to threaten Ukraine from the north. Lukashenko prevaricated and it appears that he pushed his luck too far on his last visit to Moscow when he became ‘very ill’.
Lukashenko has no confidence that his military commanders will follow his orders and go to war on Russia’s behalf. Wagner forces are in Belarus to keep Uncle Luka in power and to intimidate and indoctrinate the Belarusian army. These ‘instructors’ will be able to identify anti-Putin officers and remove or replace them. Wagner Forces can also intimidate the population preventing them from taking to the streets in protest. Wagner mercenaries would not hesitate to machine gun protesters, their reputation precedes them.
Putin is playing his old game of accusing his enemies of intentions that are in fact his own. He accuses Poland of threatening Belarus as an excuse to move Belarusian forces to the Belarus/Poland border. This is all a distraction.
Belarus is not a threat to Poland, but such movements are intended to force Ukraine to allocate defensive systems and forces away from Donbas and Zaporizhzhia, forces that are needed to fight in the east and south. Putin also hopes to influence western media outlets by raising the threat of direct conflict with NATO and nuclear war. This fear is exaggerated at very low cost by western media outlets.
Lukashenko’s survival is inextricably linked to Putin. Uncle Luka has no choice but to appease Putin while he oppresses his own people. He is walking a tightrope with Russians pulling one end and Belarusians the other while Wagner swings the rope. He will inevitably fall no matter what he does.
Slava Ukraini!
Who Dares Shares
………….
Another post from Robin. This one is from yesterday:
Hitting Odesa is another mistake.
The recent attacks by Russia on the Black Sea port of Odesa were a predictable response to the damage inflicted by Ukraine on the Kerch Bridge. However, whereas striking the bridge had a positive tactical effect on the war, the same cannot be said for Russia’s response.
Hitting the Kerch Bridge slows down a crucial supply route to Crimea and the Russian troops defending that area. Striking ports where grain is shipped across the Black and Mediterranean Seas to Africa will have no effect on the military situation. It is a political act designed to persuade African Nations to pressure Ukraine or most likely, an act of personal revenge. There are reports that up to 50% of the grain supply waiting in Odesa is for China, which if true, is another own goal. China will not be pleased when their food prices go up as a result of these actions (‘The spice must flow’).
The use of large numbers of drones and missiles to carry out the strikes on Odesa will further reduce ammunition stocks that were previously available for use against military formations. From a military point of view using all these weapons on Odesa is another mistake. The Ukrainians have become experts at rebuilding quickly.
Turkey has now stated that it will escort the grain ships across the Black Sea and through the Bosphorus Straits. So, for Putin to avoid conflict with Turkey, a NATO country, he has to hit the ports and the storage areas. This sensible act of avoidance might persuade people that Putin, in spite of his aggressive rhetoric is acting specifically to avoid that kind of escalation.
Other indicators to consider are the mobilisation of older men for the Russian army. Russia is running out of young men.
Russian oil and gas revenue is down by 49% in the first half of 2023.
Russian cash reserves (the wealth fund) are also down by more than half.
Wagner forces are now too dangerous for Russia to sustain close to home. They are more dangerous to Putin than his enemies.
All the pressure is on Putin. His army and his economy are diminishing daily. As his aging soldiers march slowly to the front they will be wondering about two things. Will they see tomorrow, and if they do, how will they get paid?
Slava Ukraini!
Who Dares Shares
Robin Horsfall
I’ll never understand why Ukraine isn’t invading Belarus. It could’ve done so instead of going through this meat grinder in the eastern front. It could’ve held the front lines there and easily taken Belarus. Removing Luka would’ve been only one positive effect, others being taking whatever military gear that’s left over to use against mafia land, freeing the Belarusians, gaining many more volunteers to fight mafia land, and handing putler a huge defeat, not only militarily, but politically, and this internationally and domestically.
Ukraine has a lot of military assets along the Belarusian border anyway, perhaps more than enough to carry out such an endeavor.
I don’t think Ukraine could handle two fronts in the current situation. That would require to recruit more soldiers and ‘real’ military aid by Washington.
I heard all that before, Mike. But, Ukraine already has x number of troops and military materiel along the Belarusian border. It doesn’t require that much to take on the Belarusian army. Most of them would surrender and join the Ukrainians anyway. It would a proverbial walk in the park, especially compared to the other front lines.
Not only would it be a second front, as Mike said, but right now, Ukraine has the moral high ground because they were invaded by their neighbor. If Ukraine were to turn around and invade *their* neighbor, I think that would cost them some support.
Read what I wrote to Mike about my thoughts on the second front.
As for the moral high ground, Belarus was involved in the attack on Ukraine from the very beginning. After the orcs withdrew last year, they still used the country to attack Ukraine via the airspace of Belarus. Ukraine has every right to invade Belarus. Nobody except the mafiosi and their butt buddies would argue otherwise.