02/05/2025
US President Donald Trump has announced that he is ready to exchange aid to Ukraine for rare earth metals. But how can a businessman’s pragmatic approach change the course of the war and why is it important for us not to miss the moment and not to cheapen it?
In my article on OBOZ.UA from January 22, 2025, just after Trump’s inauguration, I described the steps that Ukraine needs to take in order not to get bogged down in the quagmire of a “truce” that will lead to World War III, but to confidently win.
One of the tasks of Ukrainian diplomacy should be bargaining with the 47th US president: to offer him something he will never be able to refuse in exchange for comprehensive assistance. And this is not the Nobel Peace Prize – but enrichment. Enrichment through the restoration of destroyed Ukrainian cities, villages and infrastructure by American companies, as well as US participation in the development of mineral deposits. President Volodymyr Zelensky also spoke about the strategic importance of rare earth metals in Ukraine during the presentation of his “victory plan” in the fall of 2024.
Ukraine’s task is to buy Donald Trump’s favor as a businessman, to offer him something that Russia will never be able to offer. Moreover, in matters of resource extraction, the United States and Russia are competitors, and it is important for Washington not only to maintain sanctions against Moscow, but also to strengthen them. Especially in the extractive sector.
But in order to provide all this to the 47th US president and his successors, it is necessary to liberate the territory of Ukraine, where the largest resource deposits are located.
The fact that Donald Trump is now directly talking about rare metals shows that he is personally forcing events, because he has the last presidential term, during which he must have time to do what he has planned. Trump will not delay, he will force events, accelerate processes as much as possible. The Oval Office in the White House under Donald Trump will be a “dynamo machine”, and not a “sleepy kingdom”, as under Joseph Biden.
At the same time, I would like to draw attention to the fact that the US president is talking specifically about rare earth metals, while the temporarily occupied territories are also rich in other resources, the extraction of which may interest US companies. As well as in multi-year projects to restore the liberated territories – and these are hundreds of billions of dollars of investment in construction! And this suits us completely.
But when starting negotiations, it is worth understanding our goals, which, if there are any compromises, will be insignificant. Without the liberation of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, Donald Trump will not see rare earth metals, and we need to clearly convey this to him. And this is not because we are so principled, but because their main deposits are located there.
According to rough estimates, the potential of rare earth deposits is estimated at $15 trillion. But does Donald Trump need a titmouse in his hands or is he ready to hunt a bigger bird?
Similarly, Kyiv, which has received a signal of readiness for negotiations from the US, should consider (and offer) not only assistance in the form of expanding the volume of supplies, but also the range of weapons and equipment. After all, there are many categories that were supplied to Ukraine in very meager quantities despite the simply huge stocks in its warehouses, or were not supplied at all.
You need to talk to Donald Trump like a businessman within the framework of concluding a profitable deal. But a mutually beneficial one, not the other way around. Here you cannot underestimate your future business partner, but it is strictly forbidden to undercut yourself.
It is unlikely that the 47th President of the United States fully understands what development prospects await him in the liberated territories. But there may not be enough time to implement everything during Trump’s second term if he relies solely on Ukraine’s efforts.
Since 2022, when I said that “the West helps us less than it could,” that it has “hidden potential that is not being released,” I very often heard in response the extremely absurd, but insultingly arrogant: “So no one owes you anything!”
Yes, “nobody owes us anything” after the unjustified hopes for the Budapest Memorandum. “Nobody owes us anything” for the fact that Ukraine, having one of the strongest armies in Europe, has been knocking on NATO’s closed doors for decades, the accession of which could have prevented this bloody war. And “nobody owes us anything” for the fact that Ukraine has become an outpost for Europe, preventing Russia’s invasion of EU countries.
But if “nobody is guilty of anything,” then maybe we should take the chance when they can be guilty?
Operation “Storm in the Dumps”
As I noted above, rare earth metal deposits in Ukraine are estimated at approximately $15 trillion.
In contrast, Operation Desert Storm cost the US budget $102 billion. NATO’s operation in Yugoslavia cost $43 billion, but these were the total contributions of the North Atlantic Alliance, not just the US. The Vietnam War, which lasted 8 years, cost the US approximately $740 billion and brought absolutely no long-term benefits.
These are just a few examples of operations known in history that are considered both successful and unsuccessful.
In the case of Ukraine, the participation of the US army (let’s imagine such an option) against such a virtually exhausted enemy as the Russian occupation forces will not be a “long war.” The benefit? Only in the restoration of the liberated territories will American companies fully recoup the costs, which can be compared to “Desert Storm.”
For the sake of such a prospect, a military contingent can indeed be sent to guarantee the return of occupied territories and reduce the payback period during the presidency of Donald Trump. And this will truly be the same Make America Great Again (MAGA), and not flattery to an unconquered war criminal.
In addition, this story with possible more global assistance to Ukraine has its own very important moment – the weakening of Russia against the backdrop of its defeat. After all, here too the White House has the opportunity to play a trump card up its sleeve, which it has already played at one time, but not very confidently, which is why it was not successful. But that is a completely different story…
I would make it perfectly clear to the orange orangutan and his kindergarten cabinet that with anything less that complete liberation of Ukrainian territories, there will be no deal with the US, but rather only with Europe, in particular, those that are supporting Ukraine. Maybe with Japan and maybe, maybe with SK.
Fuck Europe! They caused this whole mess!
We are not innocent either.
Telling trumpkov that if he doesn’t make a deal, Europe will get all the goodies is a bargaining point, not a commitment to Europe.