Chris York

News Operations Editor, Kyiv Independent

Rants from Kyiv 🇺🇦

May 6, 2026

There are two things you need to know about Putin’s hugely embarrassing Tuapse oil refinery crisis and the second one is critical.

Firstly, getting hit four times in about two weeks like this is just embarrassing. And it’s one of a few signs right now that militarily, Ukraine is regaining the upper hand in this war.

Secondly, if you’ve ever wondered why Russians just seem to put up with being treated like crap by their own government, it’s because of Putin’s social contract with the Russian people.

For Putin’s entire 26-year rule there has been an unspoken deal between him and the rest of Russia that underpins his entire regime.

And when it starts raining burning oil in a major Russian city, that puts a pretty severe dent in the social contract.