Yuri Kobzar19:19, 29.05.25
A simple comparison of resources does not work, otherwise Russia would have won already, the analyst believes.
The Russian dictator is confident of Russia’s victory because he believes that time is on his side. However, Vladimir Putin has made a strategic miscalculation in this regard, and time is actually on Ukraine’s side. This opinion was expressed on the pages of The Hill by Alexander Motyl, a professor of political science at Rutgers University in Newark and an expert on Ukraine, Russia, and the USSR.
He admits that it is not only Putin who is “betting” on Russia in this war, but also many outside observers. They are driven to this by a simple calculation of the resources of both sides, in particular human and economic – Russia prevails in all quantitative indicators.
“It’s hard to argue with numbers. It’s easy to argue with what they do or don’t mean. In the end, numbers alone are a poor predictor of victory. The U.S. should have won Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq, but they didn’t. France should have won Algeria and Vietnam, but they didn’t. Imperial Russia should have won the Crimean War and the Russo-Japanese War, but they didn’t. And the ancient Greeks, and later Alexander the Great, should never have defeated the Persian Empire, but they did,” Motyl notes.
The analyst emphasizes that Russia’s quantitative superiority is by no means a guarantee of its victory. And the fact that the war has lasted so long under these circumstances, in his opinion, may indicate the fallacy of the quantitative approach.
Motyl also cites the opinion of Ukrainian brigade commander Robert Brovdi, better known by his call sign “Magyar.” He recently voiced a strategy according to which Ukraine can defeat Russia if it kills more Russian soldiers than the Kremlin can mobilize.
It is believed that the monthly reinforcements of the Russian army are currently about 30 thousand people, and Ukraine destroys 20 thousand occupiers monthly. Therefore, in order to achieve a winning strategy, the Ukrainian army must increase the pace of denazification of Russia by another 10-15 thousand occupiers per month.
“Do this, and all Russian offensives will quickly fail. Continue in this vein, and the global morale of the Russian army will collapse. Continue a little longer, and you can overthrow the Russian government,” says “Magyar”, who recommends betting on increasing the number of drone operators in the Defense Forces.
According to Alexander Motyl, in the worst case, the situation in the war is heading towards a certain form of “draw”, which can be considered as a form of Ukrainian victory, given the inequality of resources. If we are a little more optimistic, Ukraine still has a chance of winning, if, for example, the “Magyar” strategy is implemented.
“Time may simply be on Ukraine’s side,” the American political scientist concludes.
(C)UNIAN 2025