Aug 10, 2026
A new wave of mobilization in Russia could lead to substantial battlefield losses and increased desertion while creating domestic political risks for the Kremlin.
According to the Financial Times on August 10, a person close to the Russian Defense Ministry said Moscow is facing growing difficulties maintaining the manpower needed for its war against Ukraine, as battlefield losses continue to absorb much of the military’s new recruitment.
Another large-scale mobilization could provide Moscow with additional personnel, but the person close to the Defense Ministry told the FT that such a step would carry significant risks.
“The political effect of major losses among mobilised men, combined with likely significant desertion, could be very negative domestically,” the source said.
The Kremlin has so far relied largely on contract recruitment rather than repeating the mass call-up launched in the fall of 2022. Former Russian President and current Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev has described the prospect of another mobilization as “nonsense,” according to the FT.
However, the Financial Times reported that the Kremlin and Russia’s Defense Ministry have instructed regional authorities to meet recruitment quotas as part of a target of 409,000 new personnel in 2026.
Medvedev has claimed that around 200,000 people were recruited during the first half of the year, but heavy attrition means most new soldiers are being used to replenish existing frontline units rather than create substantial reserves.
Russia has also increased financial incentives for recruits, with signing bonuses reaching as much as 4.5 million rubles—approximately $56,000—in some cases. Despite those payments, analysts cited by the FT said finding sufficient numbers of volunteers has become increasingly difficult.
The report also documented increasingly coercive recruitment practices. Activists told the FT that police in Penza had conducted workplace raids and taken men from the street to recruitment offices, where they were pressured into signing military contracts. Russian authorities have also expanded the use of summonses requiring citizens to update military registration records.
At the same time, desertion has increased. At least 28,000 Russian service members have been convicted of abandoning their posts, according to the rights organization Peace Plea cited by the Financial Times. Leaked Russian military documents analyzed by Ukrainian group Frontelligence Insight indicate that the actual annual number of desertions could be at least twice as high.
Russia’s manpower pressure comes alongside sustained battlefield losses. Western governments estimate that nearly 500,000 Russian troops have been killed since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, while current Russian losses are running at more than 30,000 personnel per month, according to figures cited by the FT.
Military analysts interviewed by the newspaper said Russia has increasingly used incoming recruits to replace casualties instead of accumulating forces for larger offensive operations. Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that if Russia cannot maintain recruitment or conduct another mobilization, its frontline units could begin to shrink again, potentially limiting Moscow’s ability to sustain offensive operations.
For now, Moscow continues to rely on contract recruitment, financial incentives, and pressure on regional authorities to replace battlefield losses without formally launching another nationwide mobilization.
Russia is already pressuring regional authorities to recruit 409,000 contract soldiers in 2026, as Moscow seeks to replace battlefield losses without announcing another nationwide mobilization.