July 19, 2025

Analysts say Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s refusal to compromise on Ukraine is a colossal blunder that’s costing Russia its regional influence, lucrative energy markets, and place in the global order, The Washington Post reported on July 19.

The paper notes that as Putin rejects U.S. President Donald Trump’s peace proposals, and Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities continue to kill civilians, hopes for a ceasefire deal or a reset in Moscow’s relations with the West are rapidly fading.

Russian officials portray Putin’s determination to keep fighting as a necessary strategic choice. But according to Western analysts cited in the article, his refusal to compromise is a strategic mistake of immense cost in terms of global influence, access to energy export markets, and international alliances.

The Post points out that Russia’s key Middle Eastern allies — Iran and Syria — are themselves weakened, and Moscow is also losing traditional partners in the Caucasus and Central Asia.

“Strikingly, its main arms supplier now is the pariah state of North Korea,” the paper notes.

Trump’s frustration and the Kremlin’s response

Meanwhile, Donald Trump was reportedly frustrated by Vladimir Putin’s refusal to strike a pragmatic deal. On July 18, he announced plans to help Ukraine obtain advanced U.S.-made weapons financed by Europe, and threatened harsh sanctions against Russia and its trading partners if the war doesn’t end by September, writes journalist Robyn Dixon.

Dixon notes that after Trump credited his wife Melania with changing his view on the war — saying she pointed out Russia’s relentless attacks on Ukrainian cities — Russia’s state media launched a smear campaign against the U.S. first lady.

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Russian state television immediately aired nude and semi-nude photos of Melania Trump and circulated memes labeling her a Ukrainian agent. Broadcasters also speculated that Trump was facing “marital problems” and began aggressively undermining his approval ratings. The article notes that Russian TV hosts have also stepped up their personal criticism of Trump himself.

The Washington Post reminds readers that all content in Russian state media is tightly controlled by the Kremlin.

Not Russia’s interest, but irrational revenge

Michael Kimmage, a Russia expert and professor at the Catholic University of America, said Putin’s refusal to accept Trump’s key concessions — namely, a ban on Ukraine joining NATO and allowing Russia to keep the territory it has seized — appears to stem more from emotional fixation than from a rational defense of Russia’s interests.

“To put it plainly and simply, this war is a massive strategic mistake for Russia. It’s not a war Russia can win in the long term. The cost is staggering. We’re talking about roughly a million dead and wounded by the end of this calendar year. And objectively, I think the war is contributing to the worsening of Russia’s geopolitical position,” he said.

Kimmage added that while Putin is partially motivated by fears over NATO’s expansion, there’s also a clear sense that the Russian dictator is “punishing” Ukraine for refusing to act as a submissive client state like Belarus.

“It’s deeply irrational, even fanatical, but it’s one of the many reasons why I think Putin simply cannot separate himself from this war,” Kimmage said.

The Washington Post notes that while Russia has made incremental battlefield gains over the summer, Putin’s hoped-for quick victory has instead resulted in shattered ties with the European Union and a strengthened NATO. Finland and Sweden have joined the alliance, and member states have agreed to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP.

Problems in the Middle East

The paper also stresses that Russia’s ties with key neighboring countries have deteriorated simultaneously, including with Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. Armenia has announced plans to withdraw from the Russia-led regional security bloc, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, while Azerbaijan is outraged by Putin’s refusal to take responsibility after Russian forces shot down an Azerbaijani civilian aircraft in Russian airspace in December, killing 38 people, according to the article.

Before the war, Putin prided himself on being able to speak with all major players in the Middle East. But since then, he has lost allies and regional support, The Washington Post reports.

The article also notes that Russia failed to prevent the collapse of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria, as it lacked the resources due to its war against Ukraine. Meanwhile, another Kremlin ally — Iran — has been significantly weakened by U.S. and Israeli airstrikes.

Economic strain deepens as war drags on

The war has significantly increased Russia’s dependence on China, writes Robyn Dixon. She explains that in 2021, before the full-scale invasion, Russia exported 49% of its oil and 74% of its gas to Europe. Now, due to the war, Moscow is selling most of its energy resources to China and India at discounted prices.

The Washington Post notes that Putin has sought to strengthen ties with countries in the Global South — many of which do not want to be forced to choose between Russia and their key Western trading partners. He has also officially recognized the Taliban regime in Afghanistan in a bid to gain new allies and expand Russian influence. But the article says that Russia’s limited trade opportunities, its wartime economy increasingly focused on arms production, and the looming burden of future military pensions all threaten the country’s long-term prosperity.

The article points out that 40% of Russia’s national budget is now directed toward military spending. According to a recent analysis by Re: Russia, the country spent $25 billion in the first half of 2025 alone on military recruitment, signing bonuses for contracts with the Defense Ministry, benefits, compensation payments, and salaries for service members. Russia’s annual military costs could soon reach 2% of GDP.

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The paper reminds readers that Russian officials acknowledged last month that military spending and Western sanctions are pushing the economy toward recession. Still, at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, Putin declared that Russians and Ukrainians are “one people” and that “in that sense, all of Ukraine is ours.” The Post notes that while Putin’s expression was deadly serious, the audience laughed and applauded.

“We have — not a proverb or a parable — but an old rule: wherever a Russian soldier sets foot, that’s our land,” the Russian dictator said, according to the report.

A ‘messianic’ war against the West

Putin’s refusal to seize Trump’s concessions has created the conditions for an endless war and strengthened a long-held belief among his hardline security circle that Washington will always be an adversary, writes Robyn Dixon. She notes that following Trump’s tougher rhetoric on Russia, Kremlin officials have once again begun framing the war as the centerpiece of Russia’s “messianic” struggle against the United States and the West.

“This war will be long. And the United States — with or without Trump — will remain our enemy,” Russian propagandist Dmitry Trenin wrote in a July 9 column, cited by The Washington Post. He also claimed the war is “fundamentally not about Ukraine” but rather a proxy conflict between the West and Russia.

Russian analyst Maksim Trudolyubov, a senior advisor at the Kennan Institute, told the paper that Putin’s refusal to admit defeat or error has transformed a limited local conflict into a titanic East-West confrontation, severely complicating any path to peace.

“That’s why this failure became part of his broader vision of a struggle against the West, against the United States. A relatively narrow goal — to stop Ukraine’s drift toward the West — has turned into some kind of global crusade that he clearly believes he’s leading. Otherwise, it’s hard to explain his behavior,” Trudolyubov said.

Amid Russia’s crackdown on dissent, the dismantling of democratic institutions, and the imprisonment of opponents, Putin is now free to absorb geopolitical losses, casualties, sanctions, and economic damage, The Post observes. As Kremlin censorship and repression intensify during wartime, hardliners in Russia are calling for a complete rejection of even the appearance of democratic norms or Western values.

At a conference last month titled “Russia 2050,” organized by the pro-Kremlin Tsargrad Institute and Russian oligarch Konstantin Malofeyev, the keynote report argued that the war in Ukraine marked a historic turning point. It would, the report claimed, bring an end to U.S. global leadership and usher in a new era of war and fierce competition for global dominance.

“Russia must be an autocracy. History has clearly shown that liberalism and the Western model of democracy are destructive to our country,” the authors of the report declared.

Meanwhile, historian Stephen Kotkin of Stanford University wrote in a July article titled Where Does Russia Belong in the World that Russia has always thrived when it maintained deep economic ties with its Western neighbors.

“Russia has not ‘come back.’ Russia had far more influence in Ukraine before trying to conquer the whole country than it does now. Largely as a result of turning to force, its standing in Eurasia — in regions it once dominated — is declining,” Kotkin wrote, arguing that the failure in Ukraine has laid bare the profound flaws in Russia’s long-term trajectory.

https://english.nv.ua/nation/putin-s-refusal-to-end-war-isolates-russia-weakens-economy-fuels-anti-west-crusade-50531070.html