26.02.2025
The activity of the Russian occupation army in the most priority direction –
Pokrovsk – may be due to the fact that the enemy is “shifting the emphasis” to another section of the front, located to the north and northeast. The enemy may form a strike group to advance in the direction of Kostyantynivka. Another reason for a certain decrease in activity is the depletion of the aggressor’s offensive potential due to the skillful defense of the defenders of Ukraine.
How might the situation on the front develop further? The Ukrainian army is provided with the necessary weapons for at least the first half of this year. But then everything will depend on two main factors: the efficiency of the domestic military-industrial complex and the effectiveness of military assistance from our country’s European partners.
This opinion was expressed by military expert Vladislav Seleznyov in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA.
– Judging by the latest reports of the General Staff , after a small surge in activity, the enemy has returned to the previous level of combat operations. The number of attacks per day does not exceed a hundred. If you look at the map of combat operations, you can see that the enemy’s advance cannot be called serious, in particular on the priority Pokrovskoye direction. Do you assume that we can talk about a change in the enemy’s tactics? What is your assessment of the current state of affairs? In what direction can the situation develop?
– First of all, I would like to warn against being under the illusion that the decrease in the number of combat clashes is a clear signal that the Russian army is looking for options for peace. No. Every day, about 1,000-1,400 Russian servicemen are killed and maimed, and this indicates that intensive hostilities continue.
Is the Russian army unable to advance? It is quite possible that this is due to the fact that before this the Ukrainian army effectively used defensive fighting methods, which led to the depletion of the offensive potential of the Russian army.
A certain stagnation, which is currently observed in the Pokrovsky direction, may indicate that the enemy is trying to slightly shift the emphasis of its actions towards Toretsk and to the area between Myrnograd and Toretsk. That is, to form a strike group that will operate in the direction of Kostyantynivka. It is very similar to this.
Whether this will be so or not, time will tell, but talking about stagnation on the battlefield is, at the very least, incorrect. After all, a hundred combat clashes on different sections of the front are death and destruction. Even if there are only a few dozen of them, these are still combat operations. Therefore, I do not believe in the success of the negotiation tracks. Most likely, the fate of this war will be decided only on the battlefield.
– Could you assess the prospects for stabilizing the front and even counter-offensive actions by the Defense Forces, particularly given the recent very clear statements in support of Ukraine by its European allies? Can we hope that the situation will have a positive track?
– The Ukrainian army has the resources for effective defense for the first half of the year. I think these deliveries are part of the concept of gradual replenishment of resources. There is information that by 2026, thanks to the efforts of the Biden administration, Ukraine will receive weapons and equipment from the Americans within the framework of long-term projects.
Therefore, I think that we have weapons for at least the first half of the year. And what will happen next? The question arises of the efficiency of the Ukrainian defense industry and the efficiency of work within the framework of military-technical cooperation of our European partners.
I do not trust even the most encouraging statements, because words are words. Actions aimed at strengthening our combat potential are a good story. It is obvious that our Western, in particular European, partners promise a lot, but do not deliver everything. At least two of the promised Patriot batteries, the Americans did not transfer to us. The six promised NASAMS as well. The range of weapons that were promised to us, but not transferred, is quite large. Therefore, everything will be determined by supply.
We have heard so many encouraging statements during these three years… The UN Security Council adopted a completely neutral, impotent resolution on the Russian-Ukrainian war, in which the war is not called a war, but a “conflict”. Therefore, I have great skepticism about the ability of our Western partners to be effective. The only effective argument in this confrontation is an armed, motivated Ukrainian army.
– Against the backdrop of the negotiation track, which may end with peace talks, it would probably be good if Ukraine entered them with fairly strong positions. Do you think that right now, in the coming weeks, the Armed Forces of Ukraine need to gather forces and reserves and show success on the battlefield?
– No way. I am categorically against it. In the current Russian-Ukrainian war, we already had such a track, when under enormous pressure from our Western partners we launched a counter-offensive operation in the summer of 2023. We suffered enormous losses, received meager territorial gains – I mean the battles in the south of the Zaporizhia region.
Not at all. The most valuable asset that we have today is the Ukrainian army, and we must protect it in every way, in particular by implementing tasks within the framework of strategic defense. Attacks and counterattacks are colossal losses. We need to preserve what we have. Having exhausted our army in counteroffensive actions, we will simply lose the most effective argument, which will also be quoted on the negotiating track with the Russian Federation, with the US administration, or with European partners.
Therefore, the army must be protected as much as possible. I think it is not worth simply creating precedents so that Trump or the Europeans have some encouraging moments. War is an absolutely rational story. There is a Ukrainian soldier with weapons – there is Ukraine. We will lose a Ukrainian soldier with weapons – there will be no one to defend Ukraine.
The shift in strategy around Pokrovsk has epic consequences. It basically announces the failure of the mafia army in this sector. The huge sacrifices have been for nothing.
At this point, I dare to say that mafia land’s incessant attacks for months and months had done the AFU a great favor. It allowed the corrosion of the mafia army to progress relentlessly, reducing it to a shell of its former self. The mafia army is finished. It is no longer a force that can break through the lines and gain ground rapidly. At best, it can inject lots of cheap meat to pry loose a few square yards of burnt land, but that’s about it. Such tactics only accelerate the gang’s inevitable quietus. Thank you, potato generals.
Unfortunately trumpf will force zelenski to accept the ruzzian “peace” plan. So putler doesn’t care
I hope you’re wrong and that President Zelensky and the Ukrainian citizens won’t allow it.
Doesn’t change things on the battlefield. That’s what’s the most important aspect of this war.
Unfortunately what happens on the battlefield has minimal impact. Because it’s obvious the only strategic goal of ruzzia right now is to prolong the war until trumpf will force zelenski to accept his peace terms. And putler doesn’t care how many orcs will die, he has millions at his disposal. 1 year, 2 years, 3 years, doesn’t matter.
I beg to differ. If the orcs are losing ground continuously, this would change everything. No hot air exchanges at the negotiating table can compete with military success.
I wish I could be as optimistic as you
It helps to watch the roaches with their donkeys.