11/19/2023 – Translated from Ukrainian via Google and OFP
One year and two hundred and sixty-six days of war have passed. There are no changes on the ISW maps today, except for a slight advance of the Russians north of Avdeevka. And this frozen front line is not surprising, since the war has become positional. However, this is already a banality…
But there is also good news. Today, the head of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the US House of Representatives, Michael McCaul (a Republican, by the way), made it clear that the law on assistance to Ukraine will definitely be adopted. And quite quickly.
According to McCall, there is “basically no option” that aid to Ukraine will not be approved by Congress. “This is very important,” he emphasized. At the same time, the congressman noted that it will not be easy for the Speaker of the House of Representatives, his fellow Republican Mike Johnson, to pass this bill, since some radical Republicans are demanding serious changes from Democrats in US immigration policy (primarily on the border with Mexico) in exchange for their support Ukraine.
Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer immediately responded to this by promising that the aid bill for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan would be put to a vote in a package with an agreement on border policy. He also stated that all this will happen immediately after Thanksgiving (that is, after Thursday, November 23rd). Thus, we can hope that Ukraine received the desired decision on assistance before the new year.
Let’s keep our fingers crossed: next week could be decisive on this important issue for Ukraine. If assistance is allocated, then it will be a completely different matter and the hope for a radical change in the situation at the front in favor of Ukraine will again have at least some basis.
But there is other good news. This time from Europe. The EU plans to instruct Denmark to inspect and, if necessary, block tankers carrying Russian oil passing through its waters. This was reported on Wednesday, November 15, by The Financial Times (with reference to three sources familiar with the negotiations in Brussels).
We are talking about tankers traveling through the Danish Straits without Western insurance. Its absence in accordance with the law allows EU countries to inspect and, if necessary, block ships that may pose a threat to the environment.
As the FT notes, about 60 percent of Russian seaborne oil supplies are carried out from Russia’s Baltic ports, and all of this volume passes through Danish territorial waters.
This solution is all the more effective because it does not require any money from either the EU or the United States, but at the same time deals a colossal blow to Putin’s ability to finance the war in the volumes that he has planned.
If, in addition, Ukraine resumes its summer attacks on the ports of Novorossiysk and Tuapse, the blow to the Russian budget will be even greater, since almost all of Russia’s remaining maritime exports are carried out through these ports.
The Chinese pipeline (ESPO), rail transportation and all other export options account for barely 20% of the total volume of Russian oil exports and without the Baltic and Black Sea routes they will not be able to satisfy Putin’s military ambitions.
This strategy looks quite logical: if you do not have the opportunity to finance the war in the same volumes as the enemy, then it is wiser to reduce the enemy’s capabilities rather than take off your last trousers. Moreover, even if you take them off, you still won’t be able to reach it.
I hope I cheered you up? Well, I don’t know… In any case, all this news pleased me…
Today, The Washington Post published an article by Biden in which he said that military assistance to Ukraine is an investment in US security and a way to prevent this conflict from spreading and involving the US.
He wrote: “We know from the experience of two world wars of the last century that when aggression in Europe goes unanswered, the crisis does not go away on its own. It directly involves America. That is why our support for Ukraine today is an investment in our own security. This prevents a wider conflict tomorrow.”
“This solution is all the more effective because it does not require any money from either the EU or the United States, but at the same time deals a colossal blow to Putin’s ability to finance the war in the volumes that he has planned.”
This raises the question; why not sooner? We’ve been seeing mafia land circumventing all sorts of sanctions and finding ways to sell its fossil fuels almost at will. In the meantime, the evil little runt manages to keep financing his brutal war.
I hope that the EU will get this measure up and running ASAP!
“If, in addition, Ukraine resumes its summer attacks on the ports of Novorossiysk and Tuapse, the blow to the Russian budget will be even greater, since almost all of Russia’s remaining maritime exports are carried out through these ports.”
Here, we have another big failure of our handling this war. Given the right tools, Ukraine could’ve blasted these ports last year already, eliminating mafia land’s export from there, and drying up much of its finances.
“I hope that the EU will get this measure up and running ASAP”
Knowing how quickly the EU works, sometime in 2025 it might get implemented.
Great. They’ve already wasted nearly two years. But, you might be right.
Great news, both from the US and from Denmark. Starve the little bastard of oxygen to feed his war.
“I hope I cheered you up?”
Indeed, you did, Mr. Ofp. Thank you! And please keep us up to date on such positive developments. 🙂