06/18/2025
The conflict between Israel and Iran has three consequences for the regime in Russia at once – one positive and two negative. The positive for the Kremlin is that it has been able to take advantage of the distraction from the war in Ukraine. The aggressor is trying to act “in the moment”. This is precisely what has led to
Russia’s massive missile and drone attacks on Ukraine , which have become more frequent.
President Donald Trump has put the dialogue with Moscow on hold. After all, it is not yet clear who the Kremlin will actually support and how the situation will develop further. Trump himself has found himself under pressure from his own party members and can no longer freely help “friend Vladimir”. The third consequence of the war in the Middle East for Putin is that he is catastrophically losing geopolitical influence. If Iran loses, then Putin will lose too.
This opinion was expressed by Russian human rights activist Mark Feigin in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA.
– In your opinion, what game is Putin playing against the backdrop of the Iran-Israel conflict? How do you view the fact that the US has canceled consultations with the Russian Federation?
– There are several directions there. As for Ukraine directly, as we see, they are intensifying the strikes, they want to gain an advantage – operational and tactical – at the moment. While everyone is distracted by this conflict, they are trying to solve the problem by intensifying the strikes on Ukraine. This is an obvious consequence.
As for relations with the US, they really took a break because it is not clear where the situation will go. For example, Washington will begin to strengthen bilateral relations, and Moscow will take and support Tehran. No one knows what will happen. Maybe North Korea will give them weapons. Anything can happen. So the US decided to wait and see. After all, it is completely out of the question for Trump to end up as an ally of Moscow and Tehran. Improving relations with Russia against what background? For what? Why?
I think there is internal pressure on Trump now, and he cannot freely help his “friend Volodymyr.” He is being held back by the Republican establishment.
And in principle, what has changed? Why should relations between Moscow and Washington improve? Everything has only worsened, and we must take responsibility for this. And Trump, apparently, is not very disposed to this. So the situation here is not easy.
I think the US and Russia will resume talks, but things will not move as quickly as Moscow or Trump would like. There will be no quick easing of the visa regime, ease of doing business, etc. Against what backdrop? Where to go? To Russia, which is bombing with drones? That would be obvious stupidity. This is the second direction, which is connected with the consequences of the war – the relationship between Trump and Putin.
And the third is a change in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, because Moscow is losing influence. Perhaps it will take advantage of the situation, this war, to somehow increase military pressure on Ukraine, on Kyiv. But if, behind Assad, behind Hezbollah, behind Hamas, it loses an ally in the person of Iran, this may have an even more detrimental effect on Moscow’s geopolitical status.
– Don’t you think that the Kremlin has already lost its ally in the person of Iran? Just the other day, an agreement on strategic cooperation between the Russian Federation and Iran was signed, but, as we see, the Kremlin is not providing any military assistance to Iran.
– No, we cannot say that Iran is no longer an ally of Russia. Perhaps Tehran did not harbor any special illusions about the strategic agreement, which, by the way, was ratified by the Iranian parliament last Monday, June 16. After all, it does not say anything about direct military assistance from Moscow in the event of a conflict over Iran. It talks about support. And politically, Russia supported Iran, it condemned the attack. But we do not see what is happening behind the scenes. Moscow is asking to be a mediator between Israel and Iran, and is negotiating with the US on this matter. Iran is probably asking for this mediation itself, it is just not advertising it.
But Putin will definitely lose Iran if it loses. And not in a military sense, but in a political sense. For example, if Ayatollah Khamenei is killed, and the regime changes in Iran. It is clear that any subsequent government, any subsequent power in Iran will no longer be allied with Moscow to the same extent. That is absolutely certain.
Putin will lose, even if the ayatollah survives, but Iran will lose all its military power, starting with the nuclear program and ending with military production, which Israel is consistently destroying. “What kind of son-in-law is this, from whom there is nothing to take?”, no drones, no components, no parts, no assistance in military production. And Iran will be such a nominal gnawed ally. In this case, Moscow will definitely lose on a geopolitical scale.
It would be a highly welcome development to see the mullah regime be destroyed once and for all. I believe that this can have a positive effect for Ukraine. For sure, it would be better for the entire globe to have the number two terrorist entity deleted. And mafia land, as terrorist number one, could be following iran’s lead.
We can certainly hope that the izlamonazi regime will be toppled and replaced with something more moderate (by Iranian standards).
The successor is unlikely to be pro-Ukraine or pro-west. Likely he will continue the strategic relationship with putler.
What happened in Syria? A nazi dictator went to join the putinaZis in Moscow. His successors are not too keen on putler, but will they completely sever the connection?
Asshat was from the Alawite minority sect, so will never have majority support. Iran is Shia, which is closely connected to the Asshats.
The son of the late Shah is in opposition to the Ayaollah and is making big noises about returning to Iran. He is also supported by Israel, which means the US supports him.
He would be a good option from a west perspective. But it would be tricky to get the Pahlavi dynasty back. The reason why the last Shah ran an aggressive police state was to keep the izlamonazis down and also avoid the huge sectarian tensions.
Iran onsists of many competing tribes; most of whom don’t like each other. There are about 50-55% Persians. Azeris consist of 15-20%. Then there are the Kurds; c.10% and a whole range of other ethnic groups.
My solution is same as putlerstan: break it up into manageable chunks.
I’d give the Kurds all their rightful land currently in Iraq, Syria, Turkey and Iran and make one big independent, pro-western oil-rich Kurdistan.
The crap hole should be dismantled like mafia land.
Ruzzians already lost the second they decided to be a medieval country and challenge the wealthy west at the same time. No matter how much money they pump in their war machine, they will never win. The second the war is over, no matter the outcome, they will collapse. The collapse has already started, they just can’t see it yet. But unfortunately for them, all their allies know this already.