03.01.2026
What global mistakes did the aggressor country Russia make in 2025? The biggest of them was made much earlier, in February 2022, when Putin decided on a large-scale invasion of Ukraine. Four years later, the Kremlin dictator still does not admit this mistake, but the objective reality is that he will have to leave power and stop the war. One should not count on a “palace coup” in the Kremlin – the system created by Putin completely eliminates such an option. But something will happen to him that no one will expect.
How long will the war last? About a year, because by the end of 2026, very big changes could happen. US President Donald Trump could be removed from power, and then Tomahawks would fly to the decision-making centers in Moscow. The state of the Russian economy is another reason why the Kremlin won’t be able to win the war for another 2-3 years.
This opinion was expressed in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA by anti-Russian activist, head of the Stop Russian Terror Foundation (USA), Herman Obukhov .
– In your opinion, what global blunders or mistakes did Putin and the entire Russian government make in 2025 that will negatively affect 2026?
– I am practically convinced that if we talk about a global mistake, it was made not in 2025, but in 2022, and it continues to be persistently denied. This is the main mistake – the denial of the mistake made. In my opinion, the Kremlin’s global and fatal mistake is that it started this war in February 2022.
European leaders still do not understand or refuse to understand that war is a paradigm for Russia, Putin cannot imagine living without it. If the war is stopped now, a whole bunch of problems arise: what to do with the servicemen who will return from Ukraine, what to do with the economy, what to do with the industry put on war rails, what next, what is the result?
There will be no result – Putin will immediately start asking: why did we get there, what did we achieve? There is no result. There is no Donbas, no Kyiv, there is nothing, except the battle for Pokrovsk and Kupyansk, which do not solve anything at all. It is clear that for the Armed Forces of Ukraine these are strongholds, conceptual points, but globally for Russia they are nothing. This is not Zaporizhia, not Kherson, not Kharkiv.
– Do you believe that a halt to hostilities is impossible a priori, even for the 30 days that were discussed at the beginning of Trump’s peace initiative, because Putin cannot afford to stop?
– And the point? What’s the point of stopping for 30 days? 30 days will pass, and what? What will change? Then another war, another concentration, another troop redeployment? I personally don’t understand this message.
Trump doesn’t understand anything about political science at all. For him, this is a war for a piece of business. Putin promised him that, they say, if you stop this war on our terms, you will get Lukoil, some fields, the Arctic, Shmarktik, I don’t know what. Trump got it into his head. He doesn’t think about America, Ukraine, Russia, or anyone else.
It should have been understood a long time ago that Putin cannot live without war. This is the first. The second is to insist that there is racism in Russia, which is stupidity. Russia has classic neo-Nazism, fascism. Why try to attach some other terms to this?
– The question is, what absolutely real problems are already brewing for Putin’s Russia today and which ones could directly affect the fighting? What “black swans”, that is, unpredictable events, could happen in 2026, precisely from the point of view of Putin himself and the Kremlin, the Kremlin authorities?
– It is impossible to predict everything at all. What events can change something? Well, firstly, the fact that the Russian economy is far from being in such a brilliant state as Putin and the Kremlin imagine. In fact, it is already on the verge of a catastrophic collapse. How long will this last, given the size of the country and its inertia? It could take a year or two, maybe more, maybe less.
But it is also necessary to take into account the state of society, which is also getting tired. No one takes into account the law of entropy, when molecules that are not connected to each other move spontaneously, and nothing happens. And when suddenly all these molecules connect together, then either an explosion or something similar happens. Both in physics and in society, the same laws of nature are everywhere.
– Speaking of “black swans”, how do you consider the option of a palace coup, the “transit of power” that Solovey writes about, etc.?
– Just don’t mention the Nightingale. These are all some absurd fantasies. What kind of transit of power is there? The entire state superstructure in Russia is bent on Putin. This happened many years ago, even before the war. I don’t know when it started, but somewhere before the Maidan.
In such countries with dictatorships, nothing unexpected happens. What kind of coup can there be when there is a huge structure of the FSO, the FSB everywhere? Perhaps this structure is heterogeneous, but it works to ensure that Putin rules and lives indefinitely. As in the Soviet Union, the change of power will not happen due to internal reasons. Nobody removed Gorbachev. There was a State Security Committee, but it failed because society was different.
– Do you think that the same Putin oligarchs, his entourage, those who really suffered from the sanctions, which made it impossible to travel to Western countries, where all their capital is located, do not want to change power? Do you think so?
– No. I don’t think so. They might want to change the government, but they can’t do it. That’s how all the conditions and circumstances were. In the same way, perhaps the great magnates of industry and industry in Nazi Germany saw that the beginning of World War II was leading to a bad end, but they couldn’t do anything because the whole society was already working for the war. The Gestapo and other structures. And it was already impossible and useless to resist.
It looks about the same in Russia today. This mechanism has already been launched – the mechanism of repression, the mechanism of restrictions. The oligarchs no longer play the role they played 10-15 years ago.
– You mean that today’s Russia has already put itself on the warpath and that virtually any average Russian is also interested in the war continuing, because this war gives him a job, gives him a salary, gives his relative, who went to kill Ukrainians, some good money. Right?
– To some extent, yes. Although not everyone is happy with this, because a number of areas in the economy are simply collapsing, restaurants, cafes, shopping centers are closing. The solvency of the population is falling. But in general, many have had the opportunity to earn even more on military orders.
Nazi Germany worked in exactly the same way. The whole country worked for the war. Everyone received good money, salaries. No one knew, had no idea that there were gas chambers, there were concentration camps, there were problems at the front. The entire German nation was satisfied until 1943 came, when the retreat began.
I think that soon the economy will have its say in Russia. Because there will be nothing left to pay, feed, or clothe the army, because this requires huge amounts of money, and they are already running out. I don’t know where Putin will get this money. No, China or Iran will give anything, America – even more so. Everything must be paid for. Everything that was stolen is already running out. Now they have started to put pressure on businesses in Russia, to nationalize them, but you won’t last long on this either.
I don’t want to make predictions, but I have a feeling that the war will probably last another year. Maybe a little more, maybe a little less. There will be a change of power in America. I am practically sure that Trump will leave in early 2027, and then everything will start to change dramatically – both in Europe and in Russia. Because in Russia they will understand that everything is over. A Democrat will come to power in the USA, or Vance will do everything necessary at the behest of the Democrats. And everything will be completely different from now.
And Europe will also have its hands untied, because America can give any weapon. “Tomahawks” will fly to Russia, something else – and that’s it. It’s a matter of months, not years. Russia simply won’t last another 2-3 years of war. Cannon fodder, of course, will come and go, but we see Pokrovsk – even with such forces they can’t take it for more than a year. Isn’t this an indicator? What is Zaporizhia? What is Kyiv? What is Berlin? It’s all some kind of show.
I think Putin will leave not as a result of an internal coup, but in some other way. I don’t want to speculate here. Something will happen, something that no one expected will happen. Just as no one expected the collapse of the Soviet Union. But they gathered in Belovezhskaya Pushcha, signed a document, and the Soviet Union was already there yesterday, and today we woke up – three republics. And Gorbachev is already a king without a kingdom. Perhaps the same will happen to Russia.
– We see that Putin, in his madness, has absolutely no intention of ending this war. But the duration of this war has already practically equaled the so-called Great Patriotic War, or the Soviet-German War. Any war ends for some objective reasons. And when this happens, what do you think will happen to Putin, who, as before, intends to fight to the last?
– He does not want to admit the mistake made in 2022, and he will continue to the end. Just like many other dictators – Gaddafi, Hussein and others, who also made mistakes and did not want to admit them. I think the same thing will happen to Putin. What will happen, no one knows. I do not want to fantasize, I do not like sensations. Therefore, I do not give predictions about what will happen to him. But something will happen as a result of absolutely obvious and absolutely understandable economic and political changes.
Because Russian society is also getting tired, despite the fact that no one seems to be protesting against this war. It is clear that this is practically impossible in Russia. But, nevertheless, some processes that are imperceptible are still going on. And they will lead to something.
That’s why I don’t make predictions for a few years, for two or three years of war. Russia won’t pull out such a load. I don’t know from what sources they will take resources, people, money and everything else.
A good interview and many points that are spot on. Maybe the rat won’t disappear in the near future, but if his roach army gets wasted, that would be good enough.