Putin wants to intimidate the West and Ukraine with the Oreshnik missile: ISW explained the dictator’s plan

23.11.2024 – Translated from Ukrainian via Google and OFP

The Russian leadership, led by dictator Vladimir Putin, continues to praise 
the experimental ballistic missile “Kedr”/”Oreshnik” with which Russian troops attacked the city of Dnipro on November 21. There are stories about the invulnerability of this “absolutely new” anti-aircraft missile, preparations for its serial production, and the alleged ability of Oreshnik to hit targets in Europe.

All this hysteria is aimed at intimidating the West and Ukraine with the allegedly limitless military capabilities of the Russian Federation, in order to encourage “self-restraint”, in order to “consolidate the effect”, the Russians may soon launch the same or similar missiles again. This is stated in the analytical material of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

On November 22, the Russian dictator arranged another session of “instilling” fear into the West and Ukraine. On this day, he held a meeting with the leadership of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, representatives of the Russian military industry and missile developers.

Putin began with congratulations on the “successful test” of the Oreshnik ballistic missile, which, he emphasized, was carried out in response to “those who are trying to blackmail” Russia.

The dictator continues to assure that “Oreshnik” is allegedly not a modernization of the old Soviet missile and stated that Russian designers created it “on the basis of modern, advanced developments.”

Putin did not miss the previously voiced statement that there are allegedly no defense systems against Oreshnik, and also assured that Russia is already planning mass production.

Colonel-General Sergey Karakayev, commander of strategic missile forces of the Russian Federation, also joined the intimidation session. He “reported” to Putin that the “Oreshnik” can hit targets in Europe, and emphasized that there are apparently no analogues of this missile anywhere in the world.

However, claims about the exceptional “novelty” of Oreshnik are somewhat exaggerated. The US and Ukrainian reports on the November 21 ballistic missile strike emphasized that the missile was not inherently new.

Thus, White House and Pentagon officials confirmed that Russia launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IMB) over Ukraine, and Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said that Russia created it on the basis of the existing Russian model of the intercontinental ballistic missile RS-26 “Rubezh”. She also noted that Russia has already struck Ukraine with missiles with “much larger warheads” than the vaunted Oreshnik.

According to the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, the missile named by Putin “Oreshnik” is actually the “Kedr” missile , which Russia has been developing since 2018-2019 as an update of the Yars intercontinental ballistic missile model for shorter distances. And the word “Oreshnik” used by the dictator is the code name of the missile research and development project of the “Kedr” missile.

ISW cannot independently confirm these GUR statements, but it is worth noting that it agrees with ISW’s assessment that the November 21 Russian ballistic missile strike is not a fundamentally new Russian capability. Russia is benefiting from the rhetorical fanfare surrounding the November 21 strike and is likely hoping that fueling concern over the launch of the Oreshnik missile will prompt the West to withdraw its support for Ukraine, analysts say.

In order to “consolidate the effect”, Russia may very well conduct additional test launches of the same or similar ballistic missiles in the coming days. “Warming up” of the information field has already begun. Thus, Russian sources spread the message that the Russian Federation will allegedly close part of its airspace on November 23-24 to conduct missile tests. However, they did not specify which one exactly.

According to the deputy head of the GUR, Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, Russia probably has up to 10 Oreshnik missiles and that it will probably conduct test launches of all these missiles in the future. On the same day, November 22, his head, Budanov, stated that as of October, the Russians planned to produce two such missiles

We will remind you that on November 21,  Russia launched a Tu-95MS missile over Ukraine and an intercontinental ballistic missile over the Dnipro River.  The combined mass attack on the city’s businesses and critical infrastructure lasted from 5 a.m. to 7 a.m.

According to the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russian troops launched an intercontinental ballistic missile from the Astrakhan region of the Russian Federation, from the Tambov region from a MiG-31K fighter – an Kh-47M2 “Kinzhal” aeroballistic missile, from Tu-95MS strategic bombers seven Kh-101 cruise missiles ( Puskiv district – Volgograd region).

“As a result of anti-aircraft combat, six Kh-101 missiles were destroyed by units of the Air Force’s anti-aircraft missile forces. The other missiles had no significant consequences,” the Air Force noted.

The moment when the Russian Federation struck the Dnipro with an intercontinental ballistic missile  was caught on video.

According to the GUR,  the flight time of the used rocket to the Dnipro was 15 minutes.

On the evening of the attack, Putin  made a statement to the Russian people.  In particular, he said that Russia  used “one of its latest Russian medium-range missile systems with a ballistic missile in nuclear-free hypersonic Oreshnik equipment to strike the industrial complex in Dnipro. The dictator added that the speed of ballistic missiles is in the range of 4 km /s to 7.8 km/s and that there are supposedly no means of countering another Russian “analog net” in the world.

Putin called the use of an intercontinental ballistic missile against a Ukrainian city “a response to strikes by American and British weapons on the territory of Russia.”

However, the very next day, a detail from the aforementioned “Oreshnik” found in the Dnipro exposed the Kremlin’s lies.

Meanwhile, OBOZ.UA showed what the village of Kapustin Yar looks like, from the training ground named after it, rockets are launched for 10 million dollars each.

https://war.obozrevatel.com/ukr/putin-hoche-zalyakati-zahid-i-ukrainu-raketoyu-oreshnik-v-isw-poyasnili-plan-diktatora.htm

7 comments

  1. “On November 22, the Russian dictator arranged another session of “instilling” fear into the West and Ukraine.”

    While the entire planet knows how easily the West is made to be scared, this newest missile doesn’t faze those Ukrainians that I know.
    Numerous types of missiles and cruise missiles, numerous types of glide bombs, drones, thermobaric drones and bombes, mortars, and artillery shells are already raining down on Ukraine every day and night. What’s yet another type of missile in all this noise?
    It’s macabre, that those who are not affected by this war, who are far away from it, are the most cowardly. Go figure…

    • The best response to this missile would have been to launch more Storm Shadows and ATACMS at mafia land. I have no doubt that exactly the opposite happened. The squishy ones needed a hot air meeting to come to a conclusion that looks like they are doing something, when in reality they are just burying their heads in the sand.

  2. The possibility of an economic collapse or a liberal revolution seems to be as far off as ever. The putler murder gang is determined to achieve its objective of the total elimination of Ukraine.
    They will settle pro tem for getting complete ownership of all the land of their bogus claim and the 6 million Ukrainians there, before unleashing yet another genocide down the road.
    Only a military defeat can thwart the bastards.
    The European allies of Ukraine must quickly learn to accept that a land for peace deal ain’t gonna happen and should therefore start preparing an expeditionary force, whilst simultaneously sending the full €350 billion to Ukraine.
    There is no time to lose.

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