Dmitry Petrovsky11:12, 06.07.24

Putin’s confidence in Russia’s ability to win the war is based on his assessment that Ukraine will not be able to carry out significant counteroffensive operations, analysts believe.

Statements and demands by Russian leader Vladimir Putin to end the war indicate that he does not want to agree to anything other than the destruction of Ukrainian statehood and identity, according to an analysis by the International Institute for the Study of War (ISW ).

The publication notes that Putin used a meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on July 5 to oppose a negotiated ceasefire and expressed his commitment to a “final” end to the war, which would achieve his goal of destroying Ukrainian statehood.

“Putin said the agreement between Russia and Ukraine should not lead to a temporary ceasefire, as this would allow Ukraine to regroup and rearm, and that Russia was in favor of a “complete” and “final” end to the conflict,” the statement said.

Putin demands both the surrender of a significant part of Ukraine’s territory and population to Russian occupation and the capitulation of the Ukrainian military before any negotiations to end the war can begin.

It is noted that Putin has long called for the “demilitarization” of Ukraine – demands that Ukraine give up its ability to resist Russian aggression so that the head of the Kremlin can freely impose his will on Ukraine.

The report noted that Putin would almost certainly use Ukraine’s capitulation to achieve his other goal – to overthrow the democratically elected Ukrainian government and replace it with a pro-Russian political system that he likes.

Military analysts note that Ukrainian counteroffensive operations to liberate operationally important territories remain the most effective way to undermine Putin’s confidence in the desired end result of his aggressive war against Ukraine.

Experts say Putin’s confidence in Russia’s ability to force capitulation or win a protracted war of attrition is based on an assessment that Ukraine will not be able to mount operationally significant counteroffensives.

Experts stress that the West must hurry to provide Ukraine with the necessary support to conduct counter-offensive operations in order to reverse Putin’s calculations and avoid prolonging the war longer than necessary to ensure a peace acceptable to Ukraine and its partners.

(C)UNIAN 2024