Liudmyla Zhernovska23:45, 08.12.24

One of the reasons was the full-scale attack on Ukraine.

The overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has dealt Kremlin ruler Putin one of the greatest geopolitical setbacks of his time in power.

According to The New York Times , the opposition’s offensive has transformed Russia from a “tsar-maker” to an observer. Analysts believe that Moscow’s defeat in Syria was made possible because its occupation forces were bogged down in the war against Ukraine.

In their opinion, the main question now remains whether Moscow will be able to conclude an agreement with the new Syrian government that will allow it to keep its naval base in Tartus and the Hmeimim air base. Moscow analyst Anton Mardasov is not sure about this, since the Russian Federation has used these facilities for air strikes on opposition forces. 

Eugene Rumer, director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, called the rebel victory “part of the price the Kremlin is paying for the war in Ukraine”:

“Syria is their only real foothold in the Middle East and the Mediterranean… What good is Russia as a partner if it cannot save its oldest client in the Middle East from a gang of armed groups? In addition to an operational failure, this is also a diplomatic and reputational blow.”

One US official told reporters that Russia had withdrawn many of its warplanes from Syria to use in the war against Ukraine. And Russian ships from the Black Sea would not have been able to transit to the Mediterranean because Turkey closed the straits at the start of a full-scale invasion.

According to Mardasov, Syria has become a “resort” for Russian troops and a place of exile for worthless generals. In addition, after the coup of Yevgeny Prigozhin, fighters from the private military company Wagner ended their operations in Syria.

(C)UNIAN 2024