Yuri Kobzar19:38, 29.06.24

None of the scenarios envisage Putin being overthrown, as his power today is stronger than ever.

Russian oligarchs , who were shocked by the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, have now come to terms with the new reality and are hoping for victory. Many of them are confident that Vladimir Putin will not stop until he takes Kyiv, writes Foreign Affairs .

The author of the publication conducted several interviews with Russian oligarchs and learned about their sentiments. In his opinion, there are several reasons why Russian elites ultimately sided with Putin. One of them is the fear of falling under reprisals. The second is the awareness of the futility of any resistance. The third and most important thing is that they believed that Russia was capable of winning, because it had noticeable advances at the front.

“It’s bad to be an outcast as a winner, but it’s worse to be an outcast as a loser. We have to win this war. Otherwise, they won’t let us live. And, of course, Russia will fall apart,” one Russian oligarch who has previously criticized the war told the author on condition of anonymity.

From Kharkov to Kyiv

The elites of the Russian Federation do not have a single vision of what can be considered a victory in the war. Optimists hope that one big Russian breakthrough at the front will force Ukraine to agree to the current status quo and abandon its intentions to expel Russians from the occupied territories. In this context, the capture of Kharkov with its actual destruction in the process is considered in particular.

However, this option is considered by Russian elites to be the least terrible of all possible options. According to one businessman close to the Kremlin, Putin will not be satisfied with conquering only the Kharkov region. The only result he will agree to is the capture of Kyiv. As the author of the publication notes, the Kremlin dictator considers the Ukrainian capital the cradle of Russian civilization, and therefore has “almost mystical” views on this city.

Those who expect such a scenario believe that the second attempt to capture Kyiv will also be carried out from the territory of Belarus along the same route through the Chernobyl nuclear power plant zone. Many in Moscow believe that this time the Russian army is more seasoned and Ukraine’s reserves are weakened, so the Russians can win. According to Russian elites, Ukrainians are simply too tired to defend themselves again.

However, this is not the worst option.

This is bigger than Ukraine

The biggest pessimists believe that Ukraine is not Putin’s goal in itself. In fact, his goal is to confront the West, they believe.

“People close to the Russian president say he sees the invasion [of Ukraine] as only one front in a conflict with the West. This means Russia’s success on the battlefield may not be enough to please Putin. To defeat its real enemies in Brussels and Washington, Putin may feel that he needs to attack a NATO member,” the author of the publication recounts these fears.

According to the most pessimistic part of the Russian elite, after Ukraine, Russia’s target will be Estonia or Latvia: two Baltic countries with large Russian minorities.

In the past, the Russian elite had no desire to risk the possibility of a nuclear conflict. But now many of them are convinced that NATO will not dare to respond. They see the West as tired and divided, and therefore much less interested in fighting Russia. They see US President Joe Biden and European leaders as weak.

In this context, they believe that NATO will not rally to defend a country under attack. Russian elites, however, believe that NATO will be engulfed in so much panic and chaos that it will do little more than destroy trust in Western governments.

As a businessman close to the Kremlin told the author of the publication, Putin loved the war too much, which helped him mobilize society, imprison some dissidents, kill others and force most of the rest to leave the country. The war has also united elites who now feel unwelcome in the West and see Putin as their only hope for a good life. As a consequence, the invasion means there is less pressure on Putin than ever before.

“The idea of ​​an endless war in Ukraine frightens the Russian elite, who still hope that the invasion will end. They dream of returning to peacetime as quickly as possible on February 23, 2022. But so far they are silent. They do not see a way back,” the author of the article summarizes.

(C)UNIAN 2024