Russia's War Economy: Rising Costs for Ordinary Citizens

09/27/2026

I examine why Russia’s war economy is increasingly shifting its costs onto ordinary Russians. Reported Ukrainian strikes on 27–28 of Russia’s 32 largest refineries have reportedly disabled about 45% of designated refining capacity, contributing to falling petroleum-product output, regional purchase limits, long fuel queues, and gasoline prices as high as 105 rubles per liter near Moscow.

I also track the pressure beyond oil: Russian wheat prices have fallen below estimated production costs while September wheat exports reportedly dropped 73% year over year and Sea of Azov shipping fell 94%. With southern export routes disrupted, Moscow is considering longer, costlier routes through Murmansk. Against slowing growth, regional deficits, high interest rates, wage arrears, and a weakening property market, proposed VAT on foreign online purchases, parcel fees, utility increases, and other taxes show where the Kremlin intends to find the money for continued military spending.

00:00 Russia’s war bill shifts to ordinary Russians
02:34 Post-election fuel queues and gasoline prices
05:22 Grain export collapse and farmer bankruptcies
08:04 Sea of Azov blockade and Arctic export routes
10:32 Housing, wages, and wider economic strain
13:39 New taxes and the limits of Putin’s war economy

Facts over noise. Context over headlines. Truth over talking points. Principle over partisanship.