Angela Bachevska19:47, 12.10.23

Michael O’Hanlon, a member of the Council on Defense Policy at the US Department of Defense, expressed confidence that the Republican candidate will put severe pressure on the master of the Kremlin, due to which he will have to make concessions.

In the US elections, the pro-Ukrainian President Joe Biden will fight against the candidate from the Republican Party, whose representatives are now seeking to reduce or stop aid to Kyiv. America has given Ukraine about $80 billion – more than any other ally and more than the next three donors combined – but in recent months Republicans have launched an attack on what they see as “Joe Biden’s war”.

The issue came to a head last month after a new aid package for Ukraine was not included in the government funding bill passed to avoid a federal government shutdown. However, according to Michael O’Hanlon, an expert on national security and the director of the foreign policy research department at the Booking Institute, neither Joe Biden’s position on Ukraine nor the position of his likely opponent Donald Trump is as simple as it seems, SkyNews notes .

Trump, ahead of his closest rival for the Republican nomination by 40 points, has vowed to bring Ukraine and Russia to the negotiating table, an offer Putin has welcomed because it could allow him to consolidate the territories he has seized, and it is believed that Trump for master of the Kremlin is the best president. However, O’Hanlon notes, Putin “may find that Trump is going to put pressure on him” :

[The Russian president] may find that Trump is not going to give him as favorable terms as he expected, and Trump will expect results. This will probably require Putin to give up some of his goals, whether it is keeping Ukraine out of NATO, controlling occupied territory, or something else.”

At the same time, according to the expert, Biden, despite the promise to support Ukraine as much as necessary, in case of victory in the elections, will have to “seriously think” about reducing support:

It defies logic to just think we’re going to put this on autopilot indefinitely. Five to six years of stalemate is a term in which the destruction will be perpetuated and the risk of escalation will increase.”

The longer Ukraine is at war, the higher the risk that Russia will be able to successfully seize new lands, believes O’Hanlon, who is a member of the Defense Policy Council at the US Department of Defense.

“The idea that we can be sure that Russia will never be able to go on the offensive again seems a little silly to me, a little reckless,” he said.

The expert believes that Biden will have to choose from several options: 

• Autopilot (the most expensive) – providing assistance sufficient to conduct Ukrainian offensive operations;
• The minimum defensive position is sufficient to maintain a reliable defense in the conditions of an active small-arms war;
• Armistice protection (least expensive) – less ammunition and, with less casualties, less aid.

However, William Taylor, the US ambassador to Ukraine under George W. Bush and Barack Obama, told Sky News that he believes in Biden’s commitment to Ukraine.

“If President Biden is re-elected, it will most likely not affect the support provided to the United States, if even after the election the United States will provide even more support,” said the diplomat, adding that Trump’s tactics are not feasible. “In order to negotiations have taken place, it is necessary that both Ukrainians and Russians agree. At the moment, neither side is ready for negotiations.”

Earlier, in an interview with TV presenter Tucker Carlson, former US President Trump promised that he would be able  to end the war in Ukraine in just 24 hours  and “prevent the Third World War” if he wins the election.

(C)UNIAN 2023