ISW Report August 14
Preface: the following is an ISW Summary of the above mentioned report. The full report is available thru the link provided below. Some interesting insights but I don’t believe they are major revelations for those visiting this site. I believe the real value of this report is that ISW reports are circulated widely to policy makers. Perhaps some of these policy makers will take the time and read the report.
Russia has vulnerabilities that the West has simply not been exploiting. On the contrary, US incrementalism has helped the Kremlin offset and mask its weaknesses. The Kremlin’s weaknesses include its inability to rapidly pivot, dependence on others for Russia’s capability to sustain the war, and years of risk accumulation that Russian President Vladimir Putin is yet to reckon with. The Kremlin is vulnerable to an adversary who can generate momentum against Russia and deny the Kremlin opportunities to regroup and adapt. A serious US strategy on Ukraine would prioritize achieving such momentum. It would include removing Western-granted safe havens for Russia’s war machine. It would also include not only imposing multiple dilemmas on the Kremlin but the most painful ones, such as helping Ukraine make Russia fail on the battlefield faster and dismantling Russian narratives in the West. While it is premature to draw conclusions about Ukraine’s offensive in Kursk Oblast, the operation clearly has the potential to generate momentum. If it does, the United States should help Ukraine build on rather than dampen this momentum to regain control over the tempo of the war.
Russia’s Vulnerability to Sustained Pressure
Russia adapts if given time. Russia does not pivot rapidly, however, in part because of Putin’s risk aversion. It took Putin months to adapt after his failed three-day invasion in 2022. He continued to pursue his maximalist objectives in Ukraine with insufficient force and ordered a mobilization only after a rout of the Russian forces from the Kharkiv region in September 2022. It took Putin a year to start moving the Russian economy to a full war footing. Likewise, the Kremlin has been slow to react to Ukraine’s Kursk offensive. The Kremlin waited days after the start of Ukraine’s incursion to announce a counterterrorism operation in Russia’s border regions. Putin has yet to implement martial law despite repeated calls from the Russian nationalist community to do so.
Putin has proven to be decisive but not extemporaneous. His boldest moves followed deliberate preparation, which the West often ignored or missed. A decade of Russian information operations in Ukraine preceded the Kremlin’s hybrid operation in eastern Ukraine in 2014. Russia launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine only after Putin re-solidified his grip on power with constitutional amendments in 2020 and normalized Russia’s military presence in Belarus in 2021, which the Kremlin had been trying to secure for years. Putin has demonstrated a calculated and often risk-averse approach in his key military decisions. Putin declared a smaller, less politically costly partial mobilization in September 2022 instead of embracing the need for general mobilization. This decision ultimately led to Putin undercutting Russia’s mobilization potential.
It’s been said before, but it can’t be said enough; Biden and his crew are not the right people at the right place in such dire times as today. He and his incompetent collection of Sponge Bobs would be better managing a shoe store or hot dog stand, but never the most powerful nation on earth.
It’s sad when the Republican’s don’t dominate National Security and defending the West. Liz Cheney should have been a contender, but the clown car shit show that is the current Repubelican party is in full Trump/Musk/Maga mode. They call immigrants invaders and Russian are just having a “border dispute” (of the internationally recognized variety).
Democrats aren’t used to being the national security tough guys, and Biden shows it.
I am a lifelong Republican and I do not see the maga gangsters as Republicans. At best, they are semi-fascists.
Illegal “immigrants” are a national security risk. That’s why it is very hard to immigrate to the USA legally. Trust me, I know, it was very tough and painful. It should NOT be easier to come illegally and should not come with any benefits. When you come legally you have to sign an affidavit that you will not even apply for any government assistance for ten years and you have to prove you will be an asset to the USA economy. The illegal border jumpers do not do any of that and we don’t even know who they are.
By the way “Anonymous” where are you from, what is your connection with Ukraine and why do you care about US politics?