July 2, 2024

Despite good weather, Russian tactical assaults have proved fruitless gaining a field or a building only to be driven back by Ukrainian counter attacks. The refent attempted Russian advance on Kharkiv is one of many examples.

Russia continues to waste more and more men in pointless battles, they have run out of trained soldiers, run out of released convicts and run out of mercenaries. Russia continues to press every able-bodied man from their provinces, and students from foreign countries to fill their ranks, but it is not enough. Putin has begged North Korea for troops and is recruiting poor illiterate people from Africa and Asia on the promise of high wages. The drain of manpower diminishes his labour force, especially his skilled workers.

Many in the west look at the Russian land mass and assume they have an endless supply of people. They do not! The population of Russia is estimated at 145 million which is about equal to Germany and France combined (148 million).

On a losing streak, Putin murders his own population in the hope that something will change in his favour. The first sign of madness is endlessly repeating the same mistake, hoping for a change in outcome. He invests in copious quantities of propaganda using his western assets and benefiting from the glee that western media has in reporting every wild threat he makes.

We have had two years of threatening rhetoric. ‘Unforeseen consequences, serious consequences, escalations, warnings, threats, nuclear Armageddon. It is a Peter and the wolf story. Even the most ardent pacifists have stopped listening to his threats. When he talks of ‘escalation’ he means weapons of mass destruction, but he knows the use of such weapons guarantees the end of his nation, his life and the lives of his generals and their families. These are cards he cannot play; they are only valuable as a threat. Putin escalated by proxy, persuading Iran to unleash Hamas onto Israel, it delayed aid from the USA and deflected media attention, but that card has been played.

Other cards played include, drowning Zaporizhzhia, hitting the power grid in Ukraine, blockading the Black Sea, stopping grain shipments, and hitting dense civilian population centres. All played, all failed. Putin cannot escalate he cannot invade another country; he cannot take one major city in Ukraine.

Ukraine concentrates its efforts on Russian air defences. They attack logistical and manufacturing bases up to one thousand miles into Russia, they innovate and adjust looking for any strategic advantage to end the Russian invasion. Air superiority is the card that will win the game. Ukraine has been dealt a full hand of F16s.

If Putin has one card left in his hand it is the Trump card. The Trump card is about to be played again. It gives hope to a player with one card left, everything on the table and everything to lose.

Slava Ukraini!

Who Dares Shares!

Robin E Horsfall

…………

Hans Petter Midttun has something similar :

“Time is running out for Russia”

In the article “Time is running out for Russia” (FAZ), the military economist Marcus Matthias Keupp, Military Academy of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich, argues that Putin is facing the same problem as Hitler did in WW2.

According to Ukrainian reports, nearly 550,000 Russian soldiers are dead or wounded after 858 days of full-scale war (3784 days of war in total). Thousands of weapon systems have been destroyed. The world’s second-strongest army has been reduced to the second-strongest army in Ukraine.

According to Keupp, Putin’s “resources are dwindling; he is stuck in the field and cannot make any progress.” Russia is losing far more heavy weapons than it can replace.

“Russia lives off its reserves,” says Keupp. “It is burning material that was produced in the Soviet era, old T62 or T72 tanks. Older and worse material is coming onto the battlefield.”

“Towards the end of 2024, the beginning of 2025, we should slowly notice that the balance of power is shifting if the attrition rate among the Russians remains so high and Ukraine continues to receive continuous support,” Keupp argues. Its war efforts will collapse. He remains convinced that Russia will lose this war.

His assessment supports my predictions for 2024, published by Kyiv Post on 26 December 2023. In the articles, I argued that the first part of the year would be difficult but that the tide would slowly turn as the West ramped up the output of its Defence Industrial Base (DIB).

Ukraine is developing its ability to wage drone war in all dimensions, increasingly targeting infrastructure and military capabilities deep inside Russia. It is conducting active defence on land, allowing Ukraine to preserve ammunition, receive missing military equipment, mobilise, and train new soldiers. It is actively hunting the Black Sea Fleet at sea, having already destroyed or damaged 44 units. It is slowly destroying the Russian air defence network in Crimea. Additionally, its partners have partly lifted their restrictions on the use of Western-made weapons, enabling Ukraine to strike Russian forces, sensors, weapons and critical logistical hubs on Russian territory. On top of this, the F-16 is about to be introduced over the battlefield, initially in small numbers.

BUT. Russia continues to strengthen its DIB while eluding sanctions. It continues to build a coalition with China, Iran, North Korea and Syria. It keeps fuelling conflicts globally to distract Western efforts. Russia, not least, maintains its offensive within the cognitive space to install fears through nuclear threats. It knows all too well, as Afghanistan has demonstrated, that technology is not decisive at the end of the day.

Resolve, courage, and the will to fight and do what is needed to be victorious is the single most crucial factor. In this field, Ukraine stands out and outshines Russia.