16.10.2024 – Translated from Ukrainian via Google and OFP

North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un has expressed a desire to play at “war-mongering” against his neighbors. For its part, South Korea’s Defense Ministry is warning that if the North harms its people, its regime will end.

Due to the growing tension, some experts predict the outbreak of an armed conflict on the Korean Peninsula in the near future. Kim Jong-un’s actions are made more bold by his close “cooperation” with the Russian regime in the direction of obtaining nuclear and missile technologies and the treaty on comprehensive strategic partnership with Moscow, signed on June 19. Another probable reason for the current escalation is the US elections.

OBOZ.UA reports on what is happening on the Korean Peninsula today and why Kim Jong-un is provoking an escalation at this particular time.

The situation is getting worse

“The Ministry of Defense, the General Staff, and the army at all levels have begun preparations to respond to any developments in the situation. First of all, all offensive weapons designed to destroy the military structure of the Republic of Korea and to deploy on the southern border will be put on standby at any time,” North Korean media quotes the text of the threats. Kim Jong-un also called on the DPRK’s nuclear forces to be ready to carry out the mission of containing war, as well as to take the initiative if it begins. Pyongyang emphasized that this warning is an “ultimatum.”

In turn, the South Korean Defense Ministry said that any attempts by North Korea to harm its people would lead to the end of the Kim regime.

“If North Korea goes for provocation and our citizens suffer, we will respond decisively from the point of view of our right to self-defense,” South Korea notes.

Why now?

The fact that Russia and the DPRK are preparing an “October surprise” for the US elections was reported by White House officials several months ago. In particular, it was noted that North Korea could commit “the most provocative military actions in decades ahead of the presidential elections, possibly in coordination with the Kremlin,” which would create another hotbed of military tension in the world. Something similar is happening today on the Korean Peninsula.

Dictatorial exchange

To understand why Kim has started another round of escalation and is acting increasingly brazenly, we need to go back to September 12, 2023, when the DPRK dictator arrived in Russia by armored train. After negotiations with Putin, the dictators began their “bloody exchange” of everything necessary for war.

The main concern of the Moscow-Pyongyang alliance is the acceleration of the creation of the DPRK’s nuclear arsenal through the supply of plutonium and enriched uranium. North Korea has already effectively announced that it intends to step up its development of nuclear weapons. This is confirmed by Western experts.

According to former director of the US National Nuclear Research Laboratory Siegfried Hecker, the development of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal indicates that the DPRK is preparing for a second round of the Korean War and the conquest of the South. And this threat is becoming more and more real.

As US intelligence notes, Russia supports the development of North Korea’s ballistic missile programs and launch capabilities. Incidentally, such support is a violation of the UN Security Council resolution. In exchange for its support, Pyongyang also seeks to obtain fighter jets, missile equipment, and other advanced technologies from Russia.

Putin is also said to be providing Kim with nuclear submarine technology, which could help North Korea complete the final steps needed to launch its first submarine capable of launching nuclear-armed missiles. If this happens, it would have significant implications for the security of the Korean Peninsula.

In recent weeks, representatives of Ukraine and South Korea have claimed that the DPRK has begun sending people to the combat zone. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the DPRK has effectively joined the war in Ukraine. This follows from the GUR report.

“We see that the alliance between Russia and regimes like North Korea is growing. This is no longer just about the transfer of weapons. This is actually about the transfer of people to the military forces of the occupier,” Zelensky noted.

Kim is gaining momentum

Today we can confidently talk about serious political and technological cooperation between the two countries, which unties Kim’s hands. After all, soon after his visit to Russia, the North Korean dictator made a significant turn in his domestic and foreign policy, which his grandfather and father did not dare to do. The last Kim not only rejected the ideological teachings of the past, but also dismantled the Arch of Reunification, which remained the main ideological object of the country for decades. That is, these steps and active cooperation with Russia in the direction of obtaining the latest military technologies may mean that he is preparing for serious actions in the near future. And it was after his trip to Putin that the North Korean dictator stopped pretending that his regime was striving for a “peaceful reunification” with South Korea.

In a recent speech filled with rhetoric about a “confrontation policy” with the United States, Kim announced a plan to remove the “peaceful reunification” clause from the North Korean constitution and to dismantle the government agencies that deal with it. By effectively recognizing the existence of two states on the Korean Peninsula, Kim Jong-un said there would be no turning back. If war broke out, he said, the DPRK planned to “completely occupy, conquer and reconquer” South Korea and annex it “as part of the territory of our republic.”

Kim Jong-in gained even more confidence from the treaty on comprehensive strategic partnership between the Russian Federation and the DPRK. The document was signed in Pyongyang on June 19, 2024. The text of the document states that the parties undertake to immediately provide military assistance in the event of an armed attack on one of the countries. Russia and the DPRK will also be able to conduct joint exercises “in order to strengthen defense capabilities in order to prevent war.” By the way, on October 14, Vladimir Putin submitted a bill to the State Duma on ratification of this treaty.

The belligerence and constitutional changes are the strongest signals of Kim Jong-un’s intentions in recent memory. After the Russian and North Korean regimes finally formally “brothered” each other by supplying each other with weapons and military technology, Kim seems increasingly “emboldened” by the partnership and is ready to provoke a major military conflict with South Korea.

Ukraine needs to cooperate with South Korea

“It is obvious that North Korea has become Russia’s main ally in the war against Ukraine. Today, they are already talking about North Korean soldiers appearing at the front. It is obvious that Kim Jong-un receives the necessary things from Russia for these “services”. And this is not only food or money. Obviously, the DPRK is interested in nuclear and missile technologies. It can be assumed that Russia is already directly supplying the DPRK with some components for the manufacture of nuclear weapons,” – this opinion was expressed in an exclusive comment to OBOZ.UA by diplomat, Ambassador of Ukraine to Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2010-2017 Oleksandr Levchenko.

According to Alexander Levchenko, aggravations on the Korean Peninsula occur quite often, however, this time the situation looks different. The North Korean dictator wants to convert certain successes of Russia into the fact that their alliance with Moscow can be stronger than, say, the alliance of South Korea with the USA. And this is a great danger for the free world, including for Ukraine.

“We need to develop serious mutual algorithms for responding to the policies of North Korea and Russia with South Korea. That is, that Ukraine can help South Korea, and that South Korea can really help Ukraine in a military clash with Russia. This needs to be done urgently and at a serious level,” noted Alexander Levchenko.

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