Trump’s feckless and incompetent diplomacy have created the conditions for yet more bloodshed

Vladimir Putin has escalated his attacks on Ukraine in the wake of face-to-face talks with Donald Trump in August Credit: Contributor/Getty Images

David Blair Chief Foreign Affairs Commentator

10 September 2025

Nato jets shooting down Russian drones. The closure of Poland’s version of Heathrow airport. Late night emergency calls between Warsaw and Nato headquarters.

There is simply no precedent for what happened in Poland last night as Russian drones violated the country’s airspace en route to targets in Ukraine. The overnight crisis triggered by Vladimir Putin’s latest act of aggression was the kind of scenario that could have ended with Nato and Russia exchanging lethal blows involving actual loss of life.

That it didn’t – this time at least – was down to the fact that none of Russia’s killer drones seems to have inflicted any casualties in Poland. Had they not been shot down in an air defence operation that included F-35 jets from the Netherlands, the story might have been different.

For now, we can draw the following conclusions. First and foremost, Putin’s appetite for risk and his willingness to test the Western alliance have clearly increased. He has escalated Russia’s nightly drone and missile attacks on Ukraine’s cities and, from a purely operational viewpoint, it makes sense for these projectiles to reach their targets from as many different angles and directions as possible.

If Russia aims to strike western Ukraine, the operation would be more effective if the drones could fly through Polish airspace. Until now, Putin has generally avoided this option, presumably to minimise the chances of confrontation with Nato. But no longer. As of last night, he is prepared to tolerate greater risk.

The second point is that Putin has evidently been emboldened by recent events. Donald Trump’s flattery of his Russian counterpart at the Alaska summit, the repeated failure to impose tougher American sanctions and the constant stream of meaningless deadlines have served to convince Putin that he can safely go further and escalate his nightly air strikes, even to the point of violating Nato airspace on a large scale.

Instead of paving the way for peace, Mr Trump’s uniquely feckless and incompetent diplomacy has created the conditions for yet more bloodshed.

The final point is the most telling. Putin is showing his utter contempt for America’s efforts to end the war in Ukraine and he is behaving in this way because he is convinced that, even now, there will be no counter-measures from Mr Trump.

So far, one threshold seems not to have been crossed. Russian drones have penetrated Polish airspace but there are no reports of missiles doing the same. That would be the next stage in the escalatory ladder.

If Russian missiles start flying through the night sky above Poland’s towns and villages, then we would be even closer to large numbers of people being killed on the ground with all the consequences that could follow.

If Putin takes that step, it will be because he is convinced that Mr Trump’s patience will never crack. Thanks to America’s inept diplomacy, Putin’s calculations have changed in a way that makes this conflict yet more perilous.