September 12, 2026

Data on Russians’ electoral preferences became a signal for the regime in Russia

The Kremlin is divided into two groups over the war against Ukraine, while President Vladimir Putin himself fears his own elite, states Vadym Skibitskyi, a representative of the Defense Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, during the YES Annual Meeting 2026 conference organized by the Viktor Pinchuk Foundation.

According to the Defense Intelligence representative, the Ukrainian intelligence analysis is based on actual intercepted Russian documents. At present, at least two distinct groups can be clearly identified among Putin’s inner circle:

• The first supports continuing the war against Ukraine;
• The second seeks to halt hostilities through negotiations.

“During potential negotiation procedures, it becomes clear that the regime is indeed afraid of internal collapse and destabilization in the country,” Skibitskyi noted.

In addition, data tracking domestic political dynamics during preparations for the electoral process in Russia showed a noticeable decline in support for pro-government parties, particularly Yedinaya Rossiya (United Russia).

“This was a clear signal for the regime,” the Defense Intelligence representative said.

According to Skibitskyi, Putin is also concerned about the influence of oligarchs, remembering the experience of the Mikhail Khodorkovsky case. Evidence of this concern can be seen in specific steps taken by the Russian authorities:

• Adoption of new laws on mobilization;
• Expansion of the powers of the security services through stricter security decrees;
• Media reports about the possible reprivatization of companies and enterprises in Russia.

“I believe that for our international partners, it should be a priority to clearly understand who in the Russian elite genuinely wants to stop the war and who wants it to continue,” he added in response to a question about whether the West could “buy off” oligarchs who disagree with the President.

In May, Russian media, citing secret European intelligence documents, reported that Putin fears a coup in Russia and believes that he could also be assassinated using drones.

At the same time, the British newspaper The Guardian reported that frustration is growing within Putin’s inner circle over the disastrous war and its consequences for Russia’s economy.

https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/putin-fears-oligarchs-ukrainian-intel-reveals-1789240331.html