09/26/2026

Moscow has denied another mobilization 18 times since June, while Russia’s military recruitment numbers keep moving in the opposite direction. Bloomberg documents show Kremlin officials and military recruitment staff seeking foreign bank accounts, moving assets abroad, and encouraging relatives or friends to leave Russia as fears grow over what could come next.

Russia signed about 234,000 military contracts through August 2026, around 26,000 fewer than during the same period in 2025. Regional signing bonuses have climbed to record levels, yet recruitment fell roughly 10% overall and about 20% in August alone. Across the country, 56 regions now pay civilian recruiters to find soldiers, local governments face recruitment targets, and some officials have been penalized when they fail to deliver enough men.

Since the 2022 mobilization, Moscow has also built a far tighter system for controlling who can leave the country. Electronic summons can trigger travel restrictions, border enforcement is already being used, and Belarus now shares information on Russians facing exit bans. Putin says another mobilization is unnecessary, but the pressure is becoming harder to ignore: Moscow is paying more for fewer recruits while people inside the system are moving money and families abroad.

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