This is no longer a threat that the West can ignore. We must act now to prevent the outbreak of another world war
15 May 2024 • 4:21pm
The Prime Minister, in his “state of the nation” speech this week, accurately stated that the world is a very dangerous place, and we must ensure that our defence capabilities are up to the task. He is right on the threat but has yet to grasp that one way to meet it is by investing heavily in our physical and psychological military conventional deterrence.
The signs coming out of Moscow are far from encouraging, with Putin sacking his combat generals to replace them with “bean counters”. Presumably to ensure the economy is on a total war footing and capable of taking on Nato and outlasting it on the battlefields and in the parliaments of Europe. If Trump comes to power, he may only need to hold tight until January 2025; not long.
At the same moment, Russia appears to be making significant gains towards the second city Kharkiv, possibly catching the defenders on the hop and no doubt trying to unbalance the Ukraine army before the US heavy weaponry and the F16s arrive in numbers. The Ukraine Security Service believes that Russian forces are also massing in the northeast for another strike into Ukraine. In the worst case scenario, Russia could make significant gains this summer and terminally unsettle Ukraine’s defence. The fact that Volodymyr Zelensky has just cancelled visits to Spain and Portugal underwrites the seriousness of the current situation for those Western leaders not paying attention.
The US and Nato’s indecision and procrastination have helped strengthen Putin and given him the confidence to go on the offensive. Putin appears undeterred by Western leadership, believing many of our politicians are not up to the fight. Yet few who study this conflict believe Putin will stop at Ukraine: in order to prevent a major escalation between Russia and Nato, therefore, Ukraine must prevail. That will only happen with Nato’s indirect and direct support now.
Nato must plan for the worst-case scenario, where Russia breaks the “line” and charges West at speed and must be blocked. Much better to block in Ukraine than on Nato soil, but this may require Nato “boots in the air and on the ground”, or as a minimum the genuine threat of such action. Too many Western leaders have ruled this out, which has only emboldened Putin; here, President Macon is right. They must now rule it “in” to change Putin’s thinking and approach. We must also plan to knock down Russian missiles and drones attacking Ukrainian cities as we did those Iranian ones attacking Israeli cities.
Putin has done nothing to conceal his objectives. Yet, as he turns tractor factories into tank production lines, the West is more concerned about climate change, wokism and elections. None of which will prevent another world war. We are grudgingly, eventually, planning to spend 2.5 per cent of GDP on defence – yet and Russia is spending north of 6 per cent. This war has shown us yet again that mass really matters, and this we do not have, but Russia does in spades.
Most people in the UK, and probably the rest of Europe, do not believe war with Russia is a realistic possibility; our forebears thought the same in 1939. Had we not given up our defensive deterrence after World War I, Hitler would not have been so emboldened to attack, but we are gifting Putin the same advantage.
If politicians get this wrong now, their elections later in the year may be meaningless, as we all head to the recruitment centres rather than the polling stations. If they get this wrong, everything else vexing us today could become horrifically irrelevant tomorrow.
Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon is former commanding officer of the 1st Royal Tank Regiment
There is a solution to the putler horror and it needs to be expedited now. A commenter named Bipolarbear on Times Radio puts it rather well:
“Ukraine was NEVER going to be in a position to launch a genuine counteroffensive without sufficient air power. Until Ukraine gets the critical mass of military resources required and concentrated, it’s unfair to criticize their performance so far. It’s the Western allies who have been dithering that should take the blame for the slow going. Regardless of NATO, an independent pact to back Ukraine until Russia is defeated should be signed and backed up materially. Once that is in place, an ultimatum to Putin that he either withdraw to the 1991 border, or face the combined force of all the allies until that objective is met. “The Soviet understands only one language; action, respects only one word; force” – Dean Acheson.”
Posted on Telegram: Two explosions occurred in mafialand at a fuel depot in the Proletarsky district.
If Putinstan can compensate the huge losses of the attackers, maybe. But it’s very doubtful if this intensity of offensive action is sustainable in more than a short term run. Still, the situation is critical and Nato needs to react with decisive measures, instead of baby steps. Enough already with red tape and half assed measures, pull out the stops now! 😠