12/18/2023

Statements by Russian leader Vladimir Putin about “peaceful intentions” regarding NATO are empty in the context of the threats that he and the Kremlin “experts” make, have recently been put forward to the Alliance member countries. After all, the dictator has been trying for two decades to reduce and weaken the international organization, constantly demanding changes within it that would be tantamount to its dismantling.

The Kremlin leader simply continues to perceive the West as weak, which contrasts with his confidence in the “growing power” of the Russian Federation during its years in power. This is stated in a summary of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) based on an analysis of Putin’s interview dated December 17.

There, the head of the Russian Federation tried to refute the warning of US President Joe Biden on December 6 that Russia would attack a NATO country in the future if it won the war against Ukraine. The dictator responded by saying that his country “does not have any geopolitical, economic, military or territorial reasons to fight NATO.” and that she is “interested in developing relationships” with him. But after this, Putin accused NATO member countries of “artificially creating a conflict between Russia and Finland.” and allegedly pulled the latter into the Alliance. He immediately threatened the Finns with “problems”, claiming that their entry into NATO “prompted” them to join NATO. Russian officials begin the formation of the Leningrad Military District (LMD)and the concentration of military units in the north-west of Russia.

ISW analysts recalled how Putin threatened Poland on July 21, saying that Russia would respond “with all the means at its disposal.” after Warsaw sent troops to the Belarusian-Polish border due to the redeployment of Wagner group fighters to Belarus

For his part, Deputy Head of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev threatened on August 29 that Russia has “the opportunity to act within the framework of jus ad bellum (Latin law of war).” against everyone in NATO countries, commenting on Western support for Ukrainian strikes against Russian forces in temporarily occupied Crimea. He made a similar threat to Poland in November when he said Russia considered Warsaw a “dangerous enemy” that could lose its “statehood.” And in December, Moscow suggested that the Baltic countries “will become the next military target.” Russia and “will fall soon after Ukraine.”

“Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov, Medvedev and other “experts” constantly threaten to use nuclear weapons against the United States and other NATO countries. These threats are part of long-standing Russian narratives about attacking the Alliance, which predate Finland’s application and acceptance on April 4. The statements, of course, do not pose a military threat to NATO countries, but they provide important context for Putin’s ostensible efforts to “calm the waters” during his interview on December 17,” analysts say.

They added: Putin’s statement that Russia is not interested in invading NATO is also very similar to the Kremlin’s insistence in late 2021 and early 2022 – including right up to the eve of the invasion – that Russia had no intention of invading to Ukraine. Consequently, the dictator’s interview was a deliberate attempt to reinforce the Kremlin’s attempts to distort the Russian military threat as an imaginary and artificial invention of NATO.

“Putin has been trying to shrink and weaken NATO for two decades and constantly demands changes in the Alliance that would be tantamount to dismantling it. On December 17, he said that Russia does not have any “territorial disputes.” with NATO countries to disguise its real long-standing goal of weakening Western unity and forcing NATO to abandon its core principles, such as the open door policy, which allows the Alliance to accept new members at its discretion, as enshrined in the NATO Charter,” ISW says.

It is noted that the head of the Russian Federation has consistently pursued this goal throughout his regime and demonstrated his full commitment to it by ordering the Russian Foreign Ministry to present ultimatums to the United States and NATO in December 2021, demanding “security guarantees” and commitments not to expand the Alliance.

Experts say Putin’s decade-long goal is to create an environment in which NATO will undermine its own global power, creating a “structurally and ideologically defeated NATO” that will not be able to withstand Russia’s future goals, which could include territorial conquests or the establishment of Russian suzerainty over the states that Moscow considers its own.

Thus, Putin’s interview showed that he continues to perceive the West as weak, and this contrasts with his confidence in the growth of Russian power over the past two decades. In his opinion, the United States was “interested in inflicting a strategic defeat” in Russia 20 years ago, but at present this goal does not meet the national interests of Washington. In response to the question of how Russia can find common ground with the Americans, he argued that it is the United States that “will have to find a common language,” since it “will have to take into account” with Russia.

Both of these statements, according to ISW, can be perceived as thinly veiled threats against the United States and NATO. They point out how Putin continues to believe that the West is “weakening” in relation to Russia over the past two decades – a point of view that he has been articulating since at least 2014.

The Institute for the Study of War previously estimated that Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in part because he believed NATO was weak, not because the Kremlin felt militarily threatened by the alliance. It is also clear that Putin only respects military power, which he expected the US and NATO would not use to defend Ukraine, and may still expect Western support for Ukraine to end.

“Putin’s perception of Russia’s growing relative power is consistent with his Dec. 14 statement in which he continues to pursue his maximalist goals in Ukraine, which amount to complete capitulation of the country and the West. Kremlin officials have also recently made statements with expansionist rhetoric that underscore the Kremlin’s confidence in its ability to achieve its goals in Ukraine by force,” the analysts concluded.

As OBOZ.UA reported, military expert Vladislav Seleznev said that after Russia committed the first acts of aggression against Georgia and Ukraine, the civilized world should have remembered the old truth: unpunished evil multiplies. But this did not happen. He named what can stop Putin in 2024.

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