New US sanctions will make direct payments from Russian companies to foreign counterparties virtually impossible – payments will have to be made through payment agents and other intermediaries, which will lead to even greater costs and further increases in the price of goods.

Currently, the share of direct payments from Russia is 20-25%, but now it will decrease to several percent, according to employees of five foreign trade companies.

About 50 banks fell under the restrictions, including Gazprombank, the last major bank not subject to sanctions, as well as medium and small banks, but popular with those who continued to pay directly to China and Turkey (BCS Bank, Dom.rf, Forabank, Garant-Invest, Derzhava, Sinara, Primsotsbank, etc.). “Unfortunately, the sanctions list includes banks that seemed to work below the radar with rural banks in China and counter flows,” one of the importers regretfully notes.

VTB managers are already unofficially advising large clients in China to urgently withdraw all yuan from Unionpay cards, said one of those who received such a warning.

Due to the complication of payment schemes, the share of the ruble in payment for foreign trade transactions will grow significantly even compared to the record level set in the fall, the head of a payment agent company and a consultant on foreign trade activities are confident. According to the Central Bank, in September, the share of the ruble in payment for imported goods and services reached its highest ever level of 48.5%, and for exports – 42.8%. Even in settlements with Asian countries, the share of the ruble exceeded 45% in payment for imports and approached 40% in settlements for exports.

Formally, the high share of the ruble indicates that companies are paying through increasingly complex and expensive schemes, explains a source in a payment agent company. Rubles are used for transfers to friendly countries, where – as a rule, at a very unfavorable rate, with a loss of 4-6% – they are converted into other currencies for further sending to suppliers, explains a consultant on foreign trade. Rubles, according to him, are used to pay for cryptocurrency purchased for foreign trade transactions; rubles are also used in offset schemes. Statistics from Chinese customs show that these are working schemes: according to their data, in October, imports to Russia were 27% higher than in the same month last year, although in July they were 10% lower, the source reminds The Moscow Times.

But the schemes are becoming more expensive, longer and more unreliable, complains a plastic importer from China. The risk of running into a fraudulent intermediary is growing, adds the head of a payment agent company. “Simple statistics – more schemes and agents, easier for a crook to sneak in,” the importer agrees. “We are getting ready to pay even more,” he sums up.

(C)THE MOSCOW TIMES 2024