Ukraine in Focus

By Svitlana Morenets

Portrait of the week in Ukraine

• The counter-offensive has begun. The Ukrainian army is advancing in different directions south of Orikhiv, in the Zaporizhzhya region, towards Tokmak, to try to sever Russia’s land bridge to occupied Crimea. The third assault brigade said they have pushed back the Russian army around Bakhmut, in the Donetsk region.
• Some 600 square km of Kherson Oblast has been flooded and 20,000 people displaced following Russia’s destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam. Rescue teams in the area have come under fire from Russian forces and an evacuation centre that Volodymyr Zelensky visited yesterday has also been shelled. The flooded Dnipro river has brought mines to Odesa’s seaside.
• Ukraine is developing its own long-range missile capable of reaching targets at least 1,000km away. Last year Ukraine used its own Neptune missiles to sink the Moskva warship.
• Some Nato countries may consider sending troops to Ukraine if Kyiv is not given meaningful security guarantees at the organisation’s summit in Vilnius next month, according to Anders Rasmussen, former Nato secretary general.
• The Russian military has been firing at an ammonia pipeline in the Kharkiv region for the second day. As of yet, ammonia has not been detected in the air.
• Only two-thirds of Kyiv’s bomb shelters are ‘technically suitable’ for use, officials say. The city has been examining its shelters after three people were killed by debris from a Russian missile while they were trying to enter a locked bomb shelter.
• The Lviv region governor is considering resuming operations at Lviv International Airport for humanitarian purposes.
• Australia may send 41 of its retired air force fighter jets to Ukraine. The planes had been scheduled to be scrapped or sold to a private company.
• The World Bank has decreased Ukraine’s GDP growth forecast for the following year to 2% – compared with 3.3% in January – due to Russian attacks on energy infrastructure and eight million refugees staying abroad.

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Wider reading on the war

Ukrainian forces suffer ‘stiff resistance’ and losses in assault on Russian lines – Jim Sciutto (CNN)

‘They are destroying us.’ People plea to escape flooded Russian-occupiedareas – Daria Shulzhenko, Igor Kossov (the Kyiv Independent)

Ukraine dam’s destruction could ‘forever’ change ecosystems – Michael Birnbaum and Evan Halper (the Washington Post)

Burst dam alters Ukraine battlefield as floodwaters rise – Matthew Luxmoore, Isabel Coles (the Wall Street Journal)

The West isn’t ready to give Ukraine the security pledges it wants – Lili Bayer (POLITICO)

The analysis

Ukraine fights back, Russia floods

Russia’s destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam was an environmental and humanitarian disaster, as well as a major setback, stopping Ukrainian troops crossing the Dnipro river. It’s day three – and thousands are still waiting to be rescued, many trapped on the roofs of their homes. On the left bank, controlled by Russia, there is not much help, with any Ukrainian volunteers who try to get there on boats being shelled. The most devastating situation is in the submerged town of Oleshky.

In normal times, Oleshky’s plight would be front-page news worldwide. Relatives of those affected have lodged an appeal on Telegram, which has become the messaging app of choice in this war.

• ‘No connection with my parents for almost 2 days. Maybe someone knows something about them? HELP!’
• ‘I’m asking for help, people are sitting [the address] on the roof waiting. Please help, there are 15 people, including 6 children.’
• ‘73-year-old pensioner is stuck in the house, she can’t even get on the roof.’
• ‘The house [the address] was flooded. There is 1 eight-year-old child as well as pensioners who can’t walk.’

But there is no one to help them. The fate of these people and thousands more on the Russia-controlled side remains unknown.

A humanitarian crisis is under way, but the response is conspicuous by its absence. No country is offering to help save Ukrainians from drowning. Earlier this week, President Zelensky said he was shocked that Ukraine had not received a single response to requests for help. Yesterday – with whole villages buried under water – the United Nations woke up and said that it would help… on the condition that Moscow provides access to the region and security guarantees. As the UN knows, this will never happen. Russia lets no one in – or out. Even in areas under Ukraine’s control, rescue boats and workers are constantly shelled.

On the day the dam was breached, the UN tweeted no condemnation, but did observe that ‘Tuesday is Russian Language Day’. Ukrainian UN staff have not been allowed to go to Kherson to help the victims. Internally, UN staff are being told that ‘it is not our mandate’ and rescue is not the organisation’s ‘field of specialisation’. At the same time, dozens of organisations – including David Miliband’s International Rescue and the Red Cross – say not a word. When is a humanitarian disaster not a humanitarian disaster? When it’s politically expedient to ignore it.

Perhaps naively, some Ukrainians did expect help from the UN, which poses as the great body to arbitrate disputes and speak truth to power. I’ve written before about Ukrainians’ disbelief that Russia is still a member. Now I can’t believe how the UN allows its apparatus to sit idle. There are UN vehicles parked in Kyiv: but protestors have changed ‘UN’ to ‘Useless’.

As the UN does nothing, Ukrainians are still looking for survivors in the cold water. State rescuers are joined by volunteers from nearby regions who bought up all available boats. Together they have rescued thousands of residents and animals. The Afghan evacuation showed that the fate of animals can sometimes be more salient than that of humans. While there is not a confirmed death toll of civilians, the toll of dead animals is in the tens of thousands.

It’s now a year since I arrived at The Spectator. In the past 12 months, I’ve come to see more clearly why the outside world can tune out: there’s so much going wrong across the globe and Ukraine seems to provide tragedy after tragedy. As a journalist, I understand why other countries don’t want to send their rescuers to a war-torn nation. As a Ukrainian, I realise that my people, once again, have to fend for themselves.

In pictures

Kherson, Ukraine: Rescuers trying to evacuate residents and animals are shelled by Russian forces (Credit: Stas Yurchenko, Graty)

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Quote of the week

‘The initial counter offensive operations may be the most difficult and slowest, as they involve penetrating prepared defensive positions. Initial setbacks are to be expected. This phase may also see the highest Ukrainian losses.’

– The Institute for the Study of War confirmed the counter-offensive has begun. It said Ukrainian forces are attacking at numerous locations, trying to surprise the Russians about where the main effort will be.

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The war in numbers

Civilians needing resettlement from flooding in Kherson region

20,000

The Kakhovka dam’s reservoir held 18 cubic kilometres of water

Increase in water height of the Dnipro river in Kherson

11ft

29 towns and villages have experienced flooding

Journalists killed in Ukraine since the invasion

63

They came from 14 countries including Ukraine

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A note from the author: Thank you for your interest in this newsletter. I hope it helps you to understand my country – and the war – better from a Ukrainian perspective. If you enjoy the Ukraine in Focus newsletter, please forward it to someone you know: you can sign up here. My writing for The Spectator can be found here. This email is a work in progress: all feedback welcome: svitlana@spectator.co.uk