Mass versus precision.
NOV 12, 2025
Pokrovsk, Russia’s Verdun.
Mass versus precision.
Putin is the classic civilian demagogue in charge of an army. He has no strategy and ignores or fires his best military officers. He repeats failed actions and hopes something will change. If war was a battle of will alone, he could claim to be unbroken, but when will becomes thoughtless, stubborn, stupidity he damages himself more than his enemies.
The town of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast has become a focal point for Putin’s military operations. For nearly eighteen months he has demanded his generals take the town and the key road and rail junctions it contains. Deadline after deadline has been missed. Before the war Pokrovsk claimed a population on 60,000 people most of whom have fled west. In their efforts to take the town, Russia has taken more than 60,000 casualties and despite recent desperate attempts has still failed.
Russian national propaganda has become desperate to claim victory in Pokrovsk and at one time flew a Russian flag over the main municipal building in the town centre only to have it replaced less than a day later. There is no doubt a fierce struggle is taking place in the town. Ukrainian forces have been heavily outnumbered by floods of Russian conscripts forced into suicide attacks but with little gain. It might be reasonably claimed that there is a Russian corpse to fill every square metre of land gained in this battle of wills.
The Ukrainian armed forces have become expert in defeating mass with precision. Always buying time with tactical withdrawals and recovering lost territory with counter attacks. When Russia advances in the South they lose territory in the North. Last week Ukraine made a bold airborne special forces assault to reinforce troops holding the town centre using helicopters. The success of this mission shows how weak Russian air defences have become. Until recently any helicopter rising flying in the battle space would be shot down in minutes.
Ukrainian generals show a deep understanding of military science. They know how to preserve their forces, when to attack, withdraw, conserve energy and just as importantly when to attack. When they do attack their targets are of tactical or strategic importance and have a value that goes far beyond the simple recovery of territory.
The rains are coming to Ukraine, and the mud season is beginning. What little armour Russia retains will no longer be able to move. The winter battle will revolve around infantry, artillery, and drones. Once again Ukraine will gain an advantage by controlling the airspace to the rear of the front lines. They will continue to prevent food and ammunition getting forward and expose Russian soldiers to cold and starvation. Recent video reports show Russian troops surrendering in their hundreds. It is their best chance of survival. As demands for more recruits spread west into Moscow and St Petersburg the secret death toll becomes harder to conceal from the population. 1.16 million Russian casualties in three and a half years with no victory in sight.
Pokrovsk is a Ukrainian Verdun the great WW1 ‘meat grinder’ soaking up bodies in a ruthless desire to out die the enemy. Putin still believes his people can out suffer Ukraine. If Pokrovsk is a classic battle of attrition, Putin is losing. If Ukraine loses Pokrovsk, it will be more a political loss than a strategic one. Ukraine might decide to trade space for time, withdraw to new front lines, conserve resources and fight another day. To Putin it will prove another pyrrhic victory like Bakhmut hurting him far more than his opponents.
Meanwhile, back at home in Russia, power grids are failing; the lights are going out in Moscow
The Russian economy is failing. Oil giant Lukoil is unable to trade and has been forced to sell off international assets. Other Russian oil assets in Europe are being considered for nationalisation. Norway has guaranteed 100 billion in aid from its own national wealth fund against the release of frozen Russian assets.
With winter coming Hungarian Prime Minister, Victor Orban is getting frozen out of the EU. Ukraine could cut all gas and oil supplies to Hungary if Orban doesn’t reconsider his support for Russia.
Where leadership is concerned President Zelensky’s support survives unbroken, his friends in the coalition of the willing remain firm. As a war leader his courage and intelligence cannot be questioned. A few days ago, he visited and spoke to soldiers close to Pokrovsk. The intense respect his military officers show for him proves their trust. They are all in this together. Putin on the other hand, hides in his physical and psychological bunker surrounded by ‘yes-men’ and his paranoia. He is as frightened of his own people as he is of the enemy.
This war is not close to an end, it will continue well into next year, but Ukraine is well set. Ukraine has support, investment, and respect on the world stage. Russia is now a pariah state and is lost.
In the end it must be Russians that bring down the final blow on Putin. They can continue to fight and die but they cannot win. The sooner that day comes, the sooner everyone look forward to a peaceful future.
Slava Ukraini!
Who Dares Shares
Robin Horsfall