The latest post from retired SAS soldier and friend of Ukraine; Robin Horsfall.,
May 20th
The battles for Kyiv and Kharkiv are almost over. The Russian invasion in the north has been thrown back. The Ukrainian centre in the east near Donetsk is holding it’s ground so the next battle should be for Izyum.
Most major road links run north to south like lines of defence. As each transport link is cut it forces Russia back to the next line.
There are currently no major offensives from Russia. Most Russian actions are dependent on long range artillery halting Ukrainian advances with probing battalion size attacks. However, now that Ukraine is receiving its own heavy artillery from the west they are forcing back the Russian guns. Russian operations seem limited to battalion or at most brigade strength indicating a lack of qualified general staff or a lack of material or both.
A victory in Izyum would cut off yet another supply route to Donetsk in the Russian centre. The Russian might then choose to reinforce their forces in Izyum but that weakens their centre. That’s a lose, lose situation they would be on the back foot.
If Izyum is taken I believe the next battle will then be for Kherson in the South. Kherson is a major crossing point over the Dnepr River. If taken it will start to force the Russians back towards Maritopol and the Crimea. If both these battles are won then it might force a general retreat.
The Russian strength seems to lie with its navy in the Black Sea especially the submarines but with the loss of Moskva they lost a lot of their naval air defence capability. Russia might consider an amphibious assault on Odessa but I cannot see how they could get through the Ukrainian anti-ship missile defences and that would lead to even more terrible losses.
If Ukraine continues to advance and my hopeful prediction is realised, then the next danger is a poor settlement for ‘humanitarian reasons’. Ukraine cannot cede territory in return for peace. At the minimum Russia must return to its pre-war position and pay reparations, otherwise Putin will have been rewarded for his invasion. He will rearm and return for his next tranche in five years time.
We pay with our treasure, Ukraine pays with its blood.
Slava Ukraine!
Who Dares Shares.
Robin Horsfall
Message from Boris’s FB page yesterday:
“Reaffirmed British solidarity with the Ukrainian people to my friend President Zelenskyy this morning, particularly for the brave defenders of Mariupol.
The President and I had a wide ranging discussion.
I updated the President on support flowing to Ukraine’s defence, including long-range artillery, shore-to-ship missiles and unmanned drones.
This is part of our additional £1.3 billion military aid package for Ukraine.
We also discussed how we can stem the global economic damage caused by Putin’s reckless blockade of Black Sea ports.
We’re looking urgently at options to open up critical sea and land supply routes for Ukrainian grain stocks.
50,000 Ukrainians have now safely arrived in the UK and we’re doing everything possible to help them build lives here.
With over 100,000 visas issued through our schemes and fresh sanctions imposed on Russian airlines today, our resolve is unflinching – we #StandWithUkraine.”
“Ukraine cannot cede territory in return for peace. At the minimum Russia must return to its pre-war position and pay reparations, otherwise Putin will have been rewarded for his invasion. He will rearm and return for his next tranche in five years time.”
Amen to that Robin.