Orbán loses key Polish ally in EU’s clumsy squad – Bloomberg

Now the Hungarian-Polish alliance, which has already shaken after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, is ready to undergo a reversal.

Not only the nationalist leadership of Poland is upset by the unexpected election victory of the pro-European opposition , Bloomberg analysts write . Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s self-proclaimed illiberal democracy now suddenly finds itself more isolated than ever in the bloc as the fate of billions of euros in aid from Brussels hangs in the balance.

Hungary and Poland have been challenging EU values for many years: from anti-migration to the politicization of mass media and courts. Orbán was the ideological leader, but Poland’s Law and Justice party, which presides over the EU’s sixth-largest economy, lent weight to the populist movement – and had veto power that often gave Orbán “air cover.”

Now the Hungarian-Polish alliance, already shaken by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, is poised to undergo a reversal as former European Council president Donald Tusk is set to return as Poland’s prime minister. He promised to bring Poland back into the EU political mainstream, ending eight years of nationalist rule.

The victory of the opposition in Poland has “innumerable consequences” for Hungary’s situation in the EU, Deputy Foreign Minister Levente Magyar said in Mandiner’s election monitoring program before the polls closed: “Hungary will remain vulnerable.”

According to a person familiar with the future prime minister’s views, Tusk, who is deeply suspicious of Orbán and his government’s ties to Russia, is forced to distance himself between Poland and Hungary. Tusk was instrumental in ousting Orbán’s Fidesz party from the EU’s center-right group, the European People’s Party, at one point calling Orbán’s policies “dangerous and morally unacceptable.”

The changing of the guard in Warsaw will leave Orbán without a staunch ally, who has consistently defended Hungary against the threat of a veto in the EU’s Article 7 rule of law procedure, a decision that must be taken unanimously and could end up suspending a member state’s voting rights in the bloc. The proceedings against Hungary and Poland dragged on for years, with each vowing to veto the decision to protect the other.

According to Magyar, the return to power this month of Orbán ally Robert Fico in Slovakia gave “no guarantees” that Hungary would be able to count on its northern neighbor in the EU.

The biggest issue is the tens of billions of euros in funding that the EU has suspended for Hungary and Poland due to undermining the rule of law. While Poland’s new government is expected to pass legislation quickly to unblock its money, Hungary may find itself in a more difficult position.

The forint rose 0.2% against the euro on Monday, while the zloty strengthened more than 1%, lifting emerging markets as investors bet that Poland is moving closer to accessing those funds EU.

Elections in Poland – details

In Poland, preliminary data on the results of the parliamentary elections were made public, which generally coincide with the results of the exit polls. After processing more than half of the constituencies, the ruling party is leading, but the opposition parties together gained more votes .

Thus, after processing the ballots from 51.07% of the polling stations, the ruling party “Law and Justice” (PiS) received the most votes – 38.22%. In second place is the opposition “Civil Coalition” of ex-Prime Minister Donald Tusk – 27.92%, the “Third Way” party has 13.5%, “Left” – 8.25%. In fifth place is “Confederation” with 7.33% of votes.

(C)UNIAN 2023