22 May 2025
President Trump has finally admitted to European leaders this week that Putin has no interest in peace – not least because he thinks he’s winning. The great dealmaker appears to have got nowhere in his marathon chat with the Russian president and it is easy to get the feeling that he’s giving up. Certainly, his close team are giving off a very strong vibe that they would be happiest to distance themselves from what appears to be an intractable challenge.
The fact is that Trump and is team have bombastically and naively stumbled around in their efforts to end the fighting in Ukraine, arrogantly thinking they knew better than anyone else who had been involved. When dealing with blood and guts, rather than real estate, they have been so totally out manoeuvred by the poker-faced tyrant in the Kremlin that is easy to conclude that Trump might be making things worse for the Ukrainians and Europe rather than better. As we all pause and hang on Trump’s every word, Putin cracks on with his stated plan to re-establish the Soviet Union’s westward boundaries.
Putin has not changed his position one inch since the start of the war. The Russian demands for a ceasefire – that Ukrainian withdrawals from all four oblasts that Russian partly controls and disengages from the West – are impossible for President Zelensky countenance. Putin knows this and he also knows that for his own longevity in the Kremlin and probably his personal survival he must achieve at least his primary objective of subjugating Ukraine.
But Putin could not fight on for long if the price of Urals crude came down to $50 a barrel: and this is something Trump can do. Serious sanctions against Russia and those who buy its oil are within his power and would deliver results. Further US sanctions will eventually bring the “death by one thousand cuts” to the Russian economy.
Meanwhile we in Europe must, as Trump says, do our part. Like it or not, Putin’s illegal invasion over three years ago has brought the Cold War back to Europe, which could at any time turn hot. There will be less US force in Europe than there was in the old Cold War, too, so we should not merely arm ourselves as we did then: we need to do better. We must prepare for war or be prepared to lose. The Baltic States and Poland know they are next on Putin’s list for subjugation and if that happens, we are all at war in Europe.
Here in Britain, with the Strategic Defence Review about to land, talk of a new Home Guard might not be as drastic and outlandish as some commentators have suggested. The leaked version appears to have been devised by expensive flashy consultants, who have probably never been near the battlefield or even the British Army. In fact we already have an excellent Army Reserve, who I’m sure would jump at real tasks to protect critical national infrastructure in their districts. There are also 100,000 or so trained ex-military who should be used much better than hitherto. Both these organisations have been critically underfunded as part of the peace dividend. If these organisations were properly funded there would be no particular need for a new Home Guard.
When Putin looked west on the 24 Feb 22, he did not see a viable conventional deterrence. When he looks west tomorrow, he must see a powerful coalition in Europe that is able to send him whence he came.
This article has been swamped with trolls. Here are some of them :
Michael Simpson
Oh please Hamish, if oil price comes as low as you suggest is needed for Putin to be in trouble, then the Middle east, even US fracking and elsewhere will also be in trouble….
Please consider the fact that Putin has far bigger power in the huge support he is getting from China, not forgetting also North Korea, India as well as Saudi Arabia and the UAE…
While you are correct to mention the falling oil price, as the World Economy continues to stutter on, Putin unfortunately has had the support of several very powerful Countries, financially and militarily.
Sunil Abeyratne
‘The Russian demands for a ceasefire – that Ukrainian withdrawals from all four oblasts that Russian partly controls and disengages from the West – are impossible for President Zelensky countenance.’
How does Zelensky propose to end the war without agreeing to Russian conditions?
For The Benefit Of Mr Kite
“President Trump has finally admitted to European leaders this week that Putin has no interest in peace – not least because he thinks he’s winning”
Fake news from WSJ. Regurgitated.
“But Putin could not fight on for long if the price of Urals crude came down to $50 a barrel: and this is something Trump can do. Serious sanctions against Russia and those who buy its oil are within his power and would deliver results. Further US sanctions will eventually bring the “death by one thousand cuts” to the Russian economy.”
There is no situation that is going to prevent The Russian Federation whatsoever, wishful and fanciful thinking on your part Hamish, like most of your comment pieces on this dreadful conflict. consistently misread Russian intentions and capabilities, misunderstood the realities on the ground.
Grammar School Lad
Ukraine is losing, Russia is winning, and will win. It’s not worth spending another British penny to prolong it. Thank NATO, the EU, US, and the UK for causing it all.
Alison Phillips
Sorry … Russia doesn’t care about dollar price of its oil and gas. It trades oil with India, China, Indonesia etc for commodities. Can you remember the Telegraph article saying Russia was losing in Bakhmut, Kursk, Provorsk, Putin has Parkinson’s and was dying? That Joe Biden was sharp as a tack? That the Hunter Biden laptop showing drugs and prostitutes was Russian propaganda? That only idiots thought COVID was from a lab leak? The Telegraph journalism is rubbish.
…………
And now some sensible pro-Ukraine comments:
Matt Forster
If Sweden and Denmark block Russia’s oil shipments out through the Baltic Sea, over two thirds of Russia’s ship-based oil exports would be stopped. The cost to Putin’s economy would make it impossible to continue with the war at the current level.
A blockade of this type can be seen as an act of war but Putin already considers Russia to be at war with the West so that wouldn’t change anything. It could wreck the Russian economy though.
Christopher Ham
Give Ukraine the weapons and support and they need and they will stop Putin . They have done a pretty good job so far. As for Trump – even he must realise that Putin has mucked up the Russian economy so there is no money for a great trade swap with America . The last thing the USA needs is a strong Russia as well as a growing China. Does make you wonder who is advising Trump or does Putin have something on him ?!
Simon Jones
Why would we want the Russian war machine to grind to a halt?
Surely we want to see it continue to be blown to pieces by the brave Ukrainian troops using as many NATO weapons as we can give them, after all Putin can only attack the Baltic states or any other target with whatever equipment he has left over at the end of his adventures in Ukraine.
Martyn Edwards
Some NATO countries are expanding production capacity at top speed.
Rheinmetall and SAAB are both considering setting up JVs in Ukraine for permanent arms production.
Besides which Ukraine has cranked up its arms industry so that it currently manufactures about 35% of the munitions and arms it is using.
Donna Jones
Yes agree with article. Putin is not going to stop until he is stopped. Trump only cares about profit and is an unreliable ally. Europe will have to deal with Putin. The SDR is taking longer than planned and that is a good thing. I suspect it means a mobilisation of defence industries and the army reserve.
Caz Holly
I am sad to say that I do not believe Trump will put sanctions on Putin & neither does Putin.
Trump does not see this war as a threat to the USA & soley a European war that Europe has “allowed” to happen with their neglect in funding their defence properly for many decades
So, we are where we are, Europe is alone & Ukraine in danger as well as many other baltic countries. The only saving grace in in that the USA are still supporting Ukraine with weapons but how long will that last & will Europe become strong in the meantime?
There is a lot going on behind the scenes which we are not privy to.
Boris Johnson was being interviewed & said he was busy with his main project being Ukraine & there must be others as well.
Trump has nuclear but Putin has more which will be at the top of Trump & his advisors list.
However, I do not & never have believed Putin would nuclear as in the end everyone would lose, including Russia.
Only a blind fool or a coma patient doesn’t see that Europe is at a crossroad that will affect the lives of its 500,000,000 people in profound ways. At least there is no Scholz anymore. Maybe things will get moving a bit faster and a bit more determined.