22 January 2026

Russia’s oil production by the end of 2025 amounted to 512 million tons,  Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak reported in an article

for the journal “Energy Policy.” According to Novak’s data, oil production has fallen for the third consecutive year: 516 million tons in 2024 , 530 million tons in 2023  , and   535 million tons in 2022.

As a result, oil production volumes have become the lowest since 2009, when Russia pumped 494.2 million tons. Even during the pandemic crisis, in 2020, production was slightly higher  – 512.7 million tons.

The government’s annual plan included an increase in production to 520 million tons. Russia was also allowed to pump more under the OPEC+ deal, under which the Russian quota was increased to 8.98 to 9.57 million barrels per day.

But in fact, by the end of the year, Russian oil producers  were pumping only 9.33 million barrels per day. In December, instead of increasing, production suddenly and sharply began to decline  —by 250,000 barrels per day. The decline in production is the result of US sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil, which have undermined exports to India and China, notes Janis Kluge, an expert at the German Institute for International Security Studies. Since the end of November, when the sanctions took effect, 35 million unsold barrels have been ” stuck ” in tankers at sea. And apparently, there is simply no room left to store this unclaimed oil, Kluge writes.

The collapse in the price of Russian Urals crude, which is currently selling for $35-37 per barrel, a nearly 50% discount to Brent, has made production at a number of Russian fields unprofitable. According to Reuters estimates, companies at half the country’s oil projects are losing $5 on every barrel sold. This promises a new wave of problems for oil companies, which have already faced a significant drop in profits: Rosneft – by a factor of three , Lukoil – by a factor of two , Gazprom Neft – by 54% .

The Russian oil industry, which accounts for a quarter of the budget’s revenue and almost half of the economy’s export earnings, is “gradually sliding into crisis,” notes Craig Kennedy, an expert at the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard University. At the peak of its oil boom, in 2019, Russia produced 560 million tons per year, setting a record since the late Soviet era. And after reducing production during the pandemic, it has never been able to return to its previous levels. Over the past seven years, oil production has fallen by 9%, including almost 5% since the start of the war.

And that’s not the limit: according to Russia’s long-term energy strategy, approved by the government last year, oil production in the country could decline to 477 million tons by 2036 and 287 million tons by 2050. These figures are based on the “business-as-usual scenario,” which “assumes the continuation of established trends and current approaches in the fuel and energy sector.” Due to the depletion of old, Soviet-era fields, along with production, exports could fall threefold—  from 234 to 79 million tons per year.

In a “stress scenario,” which includes escalating Western sanctions and an accelerated global transition away from hydrocarbons, Russia will produce only 171 million tons of oil annually by 2050—a third of its current output. And there will be no barrels left for export: its volume will drop to zero.

https://ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/01/22/dobicha-nefti-vrossii-upala-dominimuma-za16-let-a185243