Jul 18, 2024
MARIO TAMA
The odds of President Joe Biden dropping out of the 2024 presidential election have reached an all time high, according to bookmakers.
Calls for Biden to drop out of the race have been intensifying since a widely-panned performance against former President Donald Trump last month. While Biden has publicly vowed to remain the presumptive nominee, several recent reports have suggested that his stance may have shifted in recent days.
Predictive betting website Polymarket listed the likelihood that “Biden drops out of the presidential race” at 92 percent at 7:04 p.m. on Thursday, the highest number by far since the proposition bet was introduced last September.
The odds of Biden leaving the race previously shot up from 33 percent to 69 percent on Wednesday, just after the White House announced that the president had tested positive for COVID-19.
Although Polymarket allows international users to place “yes” or “no” bets on propositions that predict world events, betting on politics is illegal for U.S. gamblers.
Intense media focus on Biden’s uncertain candidacy had faded somewhat following Saturday’s failed assassination attempt on Trump and this week’s Republican National Convention.
However, the incumbent president’s COVID diagnosis has seemingly placed him squarely back in the spotlight, with several additional sitting Democratic lawmakers adding their voices to public calls for the president to step aside in recent days.
Newsweek reached out for comment to the Biden campaign via email on Thursday evening.
On Wednesday, reports emerged that Democratic House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer urged the president to drop out of the race during private phone conversations on Saturday.
White House Deputy Press Secretary Andrew Bates rebuffed the reports, telling Ed O’Keefe of CBS News that Biden had informed both Democratic leaders that “he is the nominee of the party” and “plans to win” during the discussions.
In an interview with Ed Gordon of BET News, which aired on Wednesday, Biden said that he would consider dropping out of the race if his doctors tell him that he has “some medical condition.”
CNN’s Jeff Zeleny reported on the same day that an unnamed senior Democratic adviser said Biden has recently become “more receptive” to suggestions that he step aside, claiming that the president was asking advisers whether Vice President Kamala Harris “can win” the election instead.
On Thursday, The Washington Post reported that former President Barack Obama, who Biden served under as vice president, had told allies that Biden should consider dropping out after having conversations with “many anxious Democrats, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.”
https://www.newsweek.com/odds-joe-biden-dropping-out-race-hit-all-time-high-1927327
If Biden had enough cognizance, he would see how futile his candidacy has become.
I do not want a semi-fascist (Trump) as president, but I also don’t want to choose a lesser evil. I want someone who will not only uphold our coveted republic institutions, but one who can put together a sentence without forgetting what he wanted to say. A person in the WH with courage would be a nice change, too.
The bookies favour Kamala. (According to Forbes). Second is Newsom. Both would likely provide continuity from Biden in terms of Ukraine support, but the likelihood of pro-Ukraine Republican voters; if any remain, supporting either of those two is moot.
I’m not sure about Kamala. There seems to be a push for a state governor who can give the dems an easy state ie Michigan – Whitmer, Pennsylvania – Shapiro, which makes sense to me. Kamala can bring the black and woman vote, but I think the dems are looking for incremental gains. The black vote and women supporting Choice will stay with the dems nonetheless. This is just an opinion, and everyone knows what an opinion is worth.
Game theory wise what the Democrats should do is choose a candidate that is relatively right wing.
Most Americans are center-right.
As Trump is at the extreme right side, a right wing Democrat takes the vote of all leftists, centrists and people that are center right.
Choosing a Kamela that doesn’t appeal to the right wing voter is smart.
The Democrats are lucky to have a far right opponent, but they need to be smart to make us of this.
^b$rt
Agreed but I don’t know any Dems that are center right. Center left..yes
Maybe this will help. Sir Cap:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/07/conservative-democrats-supreme-court-status-quo/674643/
Choosing Harris would not be smart. She is no different in any polls than Biden.
As far as I am aware Newsom is a major arsse.
But the standards aren’t very high.
^b$rt
Go Kamala!